MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, June 11, inc. Marlins vs Diamondbacks
We have a smaller 8-game MLB slate on tap for Thursday, but there is still plenty of value on the board from a betting perspective. There are 3 best bets standing out to me this morning so let's dive in and discuss. Don’t forget, we have MLB predictions for EVERY game tonight and throughout the season.
MLB Best Bet: Miami Marlins ML over the Arizona Diamondbacks (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.**
Merrill Kelly has not performed well in 2026. The veteran right-hander has made 10 starts spanning 58.1 innings of work, but his 5.71 ERA is a true eyesore. Kelly has earned only 37 strikeouts with 25 free passes issued and 13 home runs surrendered. He ranks just 4th percentile in strikeout rate while allowing a 1st-percentile barrel rate of 16.5%. His 7.65 xERA is also a 1st-percentile mark, suggesting he has pitched even worse than his surface-level numbers.
Miami and Arizona have identical numbers against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days, both posting a .315 wOBA and a 97 wRC+ in that sample. Arizona is set to start Tyler Phillips, who is being stretched out from his reliever role. Phillips has made 18 appearances this season, recording 2 saves and starting 2 games. He has been a versatile piece for this pitching staff, tossing 9.2 innings across his last 2 outings. We should expect 4 or 5 more innings in this spot, so I prefer Miami at current pricing.
MLB Best Bet: Justin Wrobleski (LAD) over 17.5 outs recorded (-138)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155.
Justin Wrobleski has been a pleasant surprise for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2026, producing a 2.62 ERA through his first 68.2 innings of work. The left-handed pitcher has made 11 appearances this season, 10 of which were starts. His underlying metrics suggest regression with his 3.87 xERA and 4.51 SIERA, but he is still more than serviceable as an MLB starter. Wrobleski faces the Pirates on Thursday, and I believe this is a matchup he can take advantage of.
Pittsburgh has struggled to hit left-handed pitching this season. On the year, they rank 24th in wOBA with an 88 wRC+ and MLB’s 2nd-highest strikeout rate, and their struggles have been similar across the last 30 days. One area Pittsburgh thrives is their patience with their ability to draw walks. That is Wrobleski’s strength, however, as he ranks 94th percentile in walk rate. Among 129 qualified pitchers in 2026, Wrobleski ranks 12th-best in pitches per plate appearance at just 3.61. He has tossed 6 or more complete innings in 8 of his last 9 outings, and I expect the same on Thursday.
MLB Best Bet: Christian Scott (NYM) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-159)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170.
Christian Scott drew my attention prior to his last start thanks to his advantageous matchup against a slumping Padres lineup. Scott succeeded in that outing, tossing 5.2 innings of scoreless ball in a 5-0 Mets victory. He had been sharp prior as well, tossing 10.2 combined innings of 1-run ball in back-to-back starts against the Marlins. Overall, through his first 36 innings pitched, Scott has provided the Mets pitching staff with some much needed support.
I am looking to cash in on Scott’s good form again Thursday when he takes on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are playing much better ball than the Padres against right-handed pitching, but they are still just above league average across the last 30 days. Scott has done an excellent job this season at limiting hard contact, ranking 86th percentile in that metric. He has also registered his fair share of strikeouts with 41 already, while he has been under this 2.5 earned-runs-allowed mark in 7 of 8 starts so far.
Get our full Cardinals vs Mets prediction for this Thursday matinee
