MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, June 25, inc. Cardinals vs Diamondbacks
Thursday's slate of MLB action presents us with both new series getting started and the final games of several other series. There are numerous games worth watching and consuming from a betting perspective, but there are 3 best bets standing out to me among the rest. Let's dive in and discuss my favorite betting angles for Thursday, while you can get more tips and analysis on EVERY game via our MLB predictions.
MLB Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals ML (-130) over the Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
I favor the St. Louis Cardinals over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday when St. Louis plays host to Arizona in the final game of their 4-game set after the Snakes won 2 of the first 3 matchups. Zac Gallen is set to start for Arizona on Thursday, marking his 17th start of the season. Gallen used to be the ace of this pitching staff, but he has suffered a brutal start to his 2026 campaign. Through 79.2 innings of work, the right-hander has posted a 6.10 ERA; opponents are hitting .317 against him while generating 1.63 base runners per inning. He has been even worse on the road -- where he is today -- and he is fresh off allowing 12 base hits and 9 earned runs across 4 innings to the Twins in his last start. St. Louis is in good offensive form, ranking 9th in wOBA with a 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
In that same sample, the Diamondbacks offense is not performing well, ranking 30th in wOBA with a 77 wRC+ against righties. They also face the tougher starter on paper with Michael McGreevy entering play with a 3.35 ERA across 83.1 innings of work. McGreevy has regression concerns in his game, but he is a consistent strike thrower who pounds the zone and forces opponents to capitalize on his mistakes. With Arizona’s current offensive form, they are worth picking on in most situations.
Find our full Cardinals vs Diamondbacks prediction
MLB Best Bet: San Francisco Giants ML (-130) over the Athletics
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
We have a pitching mismatch on Thursday when the San Francisco Giants host the Athletics in Oracle Park. Landen Roupp is set to make his 16th start of the season for the Giants, and the right-hander enters play with a 4.15 ERA across his first 80.1 innings of work. His 3.29 xERA is an even better mark. Roupp ranks 87th percentile or better in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, sporting one of the better batted-ball profiles in the sport. He also earns a 26.3% strikeout rate, which helps him avoid major damage. Roupp was sharp in his last start and should pitch well at home in this spot.
Jeffrey Springs is not in good form, allowing 23 total runs in 16.1 innings pitched so far in June. Springs struggled at the end of May as well, allowing 9 total runs in his final 2 starts against the Padres and Mariners. In his last start, he faced an Angels lineup that had been in putrid form against southpaw pitching. They smoked him for 2 home runs and 6 earned runs in under 4 innings pitched. Springs has allowed 9 home runs this month and 21 total already on the year.
MLB Best Bet: MacKenzie Gore (TEX) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-156)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175.
MacKenzie Gore is a volatile arm that can be frustrating to bet on or against. When on his game, he appears to be an elite talent from the left side with excellent upside as a top end starter in this league. When having an off day he can really have a blow-up outing and hurt his season long ERA quickly. This has been the case throughout his career, but I am willing to take a stab at his strikeout prop on Thursday.
On the season the Blue Jays have a .290 wOBA, which ranks 28th against left-handed pitching. Further, they have a 83 wRC+ in that sample with a 21.2% strikeout rate. That strikeout rate has climbed in the last 30 days to 24.3%. Among the last 10 left-handed starters to face the Blue Jays since May 12, 8 of those arms have exceeded this 4.5 strikeout prop.
Gore has made 16 starts this season, recording 5 or more punch outs in 12 of those outings. His 92 strikeouts across 84 innings pitched results in a 73rd percentile strikeout rate. His history against this Toronto lineup is not the greatest, but even if he struggles and allows a few runs, I believe this 4.5 mark is more than achievable.
