Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/14/26

Merrill Kelly is back with the Arizona Diamondbacks after a midseason trade to the Rangers in 2025, making his first start of the season on the road against the Baltimore Orioles. Game 1 of this series finished 9-7 in Baltimore’s favor and I expect another high-scoring affair this time around as well. Kelly had his moments throughout a decent 2025 campaign, but he’s entering the rotation matched up against an Orioles team that has found their groove here lately. Baltimore is posting a 137 wRC+ over the last 7 days and overall has found success against right-handed pitching. In relief, Arizona’s bullpen issues from a year ago appear to still be present as the Diamondbacks unit ranks 26th in MLB with a 5.37 combined ERA.

On the flip side, Trevor Rogers (1.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) takes the bump for the Orioles coming off three consecutive quality starts to begin the season. He’s been solid, but a 4.30 xFIP compared to 2.66 FIP mark suggests the Orioles defense has helped Rogers a ton and he’s matched up against a Diamondbacks unit that has stronger splits when facing left-handed pitching. On the topic of splits, for what it’s worth, Baltimore has posted better offensive numbers this season at home while Arizona has been much stronger on the road. With all things considered, I’ll back the offenses in this spot and take the over.

Diamondbacks vs Orioles prediction: Over 8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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