Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 07/18/25

Charlie Morton is someone I am excited to talk about given his recent form. The 41-year-old had an atrocious beginning to the season, allowing 3 or more earned runs in each of his first 6 outings — including 4 or more earned runs allowed in the first 5. His command of the strike zone during that stretch was awful, as he issued 20 walks in those 24.1 innings of work. Baltimore then sent the veteran pitcher to the bullpen to regain his form, and that is exactly what he did. The Orioles were happy with the adjustments he made and thrusted him back into the starting rotation, where he has since made 8 starts. Those last 8 outings have combined for 42.1 innings with a 5-0 record and a 2.76 ERA. His 2.85 FIP and 10.2 K/9 are equally impressive marks, and he has issued just 14 walks in that span. Morton is my preferred starting option in Friday’s matchup.

Taj Bradley is an interesting pitcher who seems to have level of volatility in his game. Within his last 7 starts alone, the right-hander has allowed 1 or fewer runs 3 times and 5 or more runs 3 times. His strikeout production has taken a noticeable hit compared to his first 2 seasons, and his lack of command is known to pop up from time to time. Bradley has quality batted ball metrics this season but has performed worse in his new home park with a 5.55 ERA in 48.2 innings of work. Baltimore has been better offensively when facing right-handed pitching; I expect the Orioles to win Friday’s matchup.

Orioles vs Rays prediction: Baltimore ML (+106) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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