Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 07/04/25

While July 4 is known for fireworks, I expect a lower scoring game today between the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds. Andrew Abbott and Jesus Luzardo are both talented starting pitchers from the left side, and I expect both starters to deliver quality outings for their clubs today. Abbott has been lights out all season long, posting a 1.79 ERA through his first 14 starts, spanning 80.1 innings of work. His xERA of 3.05 suggests some eventual regression, but that is still an 82nd percentile mark this season. Philadelphia ranks just 21st in wOBA within the last 30 days against left-handed pitching, posting an 80 wRC+ in that span as well. My favorite bet in this game is Abbott under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -110, but I also think Luzardo can pitch well today.

Luzardo had a rough 2 starts against Milwaukee to end May and against Toronto to begin June. In those 2 starts he earned just 5.2 innings while allowing 20 earned runs and 21 base hits. Those 2 starts made his season-long numbers look far worse than before, obviously, but he has bounced back well in his most recent outings. The left-hander has posted 11.2 innings of 2-run ball with 14 Ks in his last 2 starts against the Mets and Braves, and I like his chances of rolling today against the Reds. There is also slight wind blowing in today, which should help our chances.

Reds vs Phillies prediction: Under 8 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

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