Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/28/26

Saturday’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the Atlanta Braves should be an interesting one. Reynaldo Lopez converted from a reliever to a starter for the Braves in 2024, totaling 135.2 innings with a 1.99 ERA that earned him an all-star nod. His 3.91 xERA that season was a clear indicator that he was outperforming his expected metrics, however. Lopez missed nearly all of 2025 with a bad shoulder. Now, Lopez is set to return to the Braves rotation on Saturday despite concerns of decreased velocity in his final spring tune up. Lopez sat in above 95 MPH with his fastball and 84 MPH with his slider when healthy in 2024, but velocity readings from his final spring training outing were 5-8 MPH slower on those pitches. He blamed mechanical issues more than physical pain, but whatever his issue is I don’t trust him in start 1 against an MLB lineup.

If forced to choose a side for this game I do side with Kansas City at plus money, but I also have my concerns about Michael Wacha. The veteran right-hander was solid for the Royals in 2025, but projection systems have him pegged for an ERA of around 4.50 in 2026. Career-low strikeout production last season is a reason for concern. Wacha did post 21 strikeouts in 15.2 innings of work during spring training, but that came along with an alarming 10 walks and 12 earned runs. He allowed a home run in each of his last 3 outings and had 3 starts with 3 free passes issued. I understand that spring training results can be faulty at times with pitchers and hitters working on things, but my hopes are not overly high for Wacha this season to begin with.

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves prediction: Over 8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.