Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/11/25

One of the better series of this weekend’s MLB slate concludes on Sunday, when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers in the final game of a 4-game series in the desert. Arizona was a team that I was pretty high on entering this season, but things have been pretty up and down for the Diamondbacks to this point. Pitching has been the issue for Arizona in 2025, as the Diamondbacks are just 25th in team ERA to this point (4.51), while also sitting at 20th in hits allowed and WHIP. With that said, Arizona got a great effort from its arms in Saturday’s victory, and I’m going right back to that well on Sunday with the under at the current number. 

Arizona will send Zac Gallen to the mound to face a lineup that he’s very familiar with. The longtime Diamondbacks pitcher doesn’t have great numbers on paper through the first 6 weeks of the season (4.37 ERA, 11% walk rate, 36.7% ground ball rate), but his expected metrics (3.62 xERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, .223 expected batting average) suggest that Gallen is due for some positive regression, and that should come at home on Sunday. It certainly helps matters that Gallen has excellent career numbers against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and others in the Los Angeles lineup. As for the Dodgers, Tony Gonsolin (2.81 xERA, .205 expected batting average) looked sharp in each of his first two outings this season, and I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue against a familiar foe. I’ll grab the under to close out this series on Sunday.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction: Under 9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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