Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/21/25

When looking into Sunday’s matchup between the Miami Marlins and the Texas Rangers, it strikes me as a game that would be fun to attend in person. I am nowhere near Texas, so that won’t be happening, but to those that may be attending this ballgame I hope it unfolds how it should on paper. Eury Perez is one of the premier young talents at the pitching position, and I am still very fond of the arm despite what has been a shaky return to the majors in 2025. Perez missed all of 2024 with injury rehab, but he is starting to flash signs of his return to form. Two starts ago resulted in 1 out short of a quality start against the Washington Nationals. While that isn’t particularly impressive on its own, that was his 2nd straight start against that same lineup, and he made quality adjustments the 2nd time. His last start resulted in 5 scoreless frames on the road at Coors Field. Now on the road again where he has admittedly been more vulnerable, I expect him to deliver another solid start for Miami.

Merrill Kelly was knocked around for 6 earned runs in 3 innings of work by the Houston Astros in his last start, but his first 48 innings with Texas resulted in just 17 earned runs combined. Texas won’t be making the playoffs this season, but I still look for Kelly to finish his 2025 campaign strong and maintain a sub-3.50 ERA. Miami has a youthful offense which brings upside, but that volatility can swing the other way, and I expect Kelly’s veteran presence to present a tough matchup for Miami.

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers prediction: Under 7.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.