New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 05/03/25

The New York Mets are a fun baseball team to watch with a loaded offense that is rounding into form and a revamped pitching staff that is outperforming expectations so far. Tylor Megill has been a large part of the team’s early success this season, posting a 1.74 ERA through his first 31 innings. His underlying numbers support his success, as his 2.31 FIP and 3.19 SIERA are promising, and his improved slider has helped fill the void in usage as he ditched his unproductive cutter in the offseason. The Cardinals have a respectable offensive unit, but it is still not a lineup that scares me off backing Megill in his current form.

Erick Fedde was lit up in his last outing, allowing 12 base runners and 7 earned runs to an underrated Milwaukee Brewers lineup. Fedde has posted a 4.68 ERA through 6 starts this season with similarly poor underlying metrics including a 4.82 xERA, 4.77 FIP, and 5.68 SIERA. His 0.7% K-BB% is a recipe for trouble, and his .274 xBA ranks just 23rd percentile as well. He is struggling to draw batters out of the zone and his inability to generate whiffs within the zone is not a great look against this Mets lineup. Rain could play a factor in today’s game, but I still favor the Mets through the first 5 innings and throughout the duration of the game.

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions: Mets ML (-145) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.