New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/25/26

The MLB regular season is finally here, with the New York Yankees traveling to San Francisco to face the Giants on Wednesday night. Max Fried and Logan Webb are the scheduled starting pitchers for this game, and runs will be at a premium with that type of talent on the mound. Fried was not his sharpest in his final spring tuneup, but he did reach 81 pitches across 5.0 innings in that start. We can expect 85 to 90 pitches or so in his season debut. Oracle Park is known as a pitcher’s park, and that tends to be especially true in late March with cooler temperatures. Fried posted a 2.86 ERA across a career-best 195.1 innings of work last season, his first with the Yankees. His strong batted ball metrics and ability to generate ground balls should play well in Oracle.

Webb is another pitcher who thrives in Oracle Park. The Giants’ ace is fresh off of pitching for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, and he is now ready to hit the ground running with San Francisco. He surpassed 200 innings of work for the 3rd consecutive season in 2025, and his strikeout production took a noticeable jump. Webb posted a career-best 9.74 K/9 while maintaining an elite ground ball rate and command of the strike zone. I have faith that spike in strikeout rate is sustainable for 2026, and backing Webb at home is something I will often look to do.

I tend to lean toward early-season unders on game totals for a few reasons. The aforementioned cooler temperatures play an obvious factor when it comes to run-scoring environments. There also tends to be changes in the baseball itself from year to year, and now batters and pitchers alike are dealing with an automated strike system for the first time. I also like backing pitching staffs early on in the season when their bullpens are healthy and well rested behind the starter. For Wednesday’s matchup between the Yankees and Giants, I lean toward the under on the posted game total of 7.

Yankees vs Giants prediction: Under 7 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.