New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/01/26

Max Fried put together a stellar performance last night in Seattle, throwing 7.0 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts while allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk. With that showing, the Yankees were able to even the series with the Mariners at 1-1 — which means we have a West Coast, Wednesday matinee rubber match on our hands between 2 of the American League’s best teams. 

Wednesday’s matchup features 2 of the better young pitchers in the game, as New York’s Cam Schlittler takes the mound against Seattle’s George Kirby. Schlittler dazzled in spring, and that carried over right into his first regular-season start last week — when he struck out 8 Giants in 5.1 innings while allowing just 1 hit. As for Kirby, his spring training wasn’t as smooth — but he was very good in his opening start against the Guardians, throwing 6.0 innings with 6 strikeouts, 1 earned run, 1 hit and 1 walk allowed. For what it’s worth, this Yankees lineup has just 31 combined at bats against Kirby, and they have mustered just 3 hits. Similarly, the M’s have just 14 at bats against Schlittler — compiling a mere 2 hits in those at-bats. The sample size is very small, but it’s clear these pitchers have had their ways in this matchup thus far. 

With these stud pitchers on the mound, I gravitated toward the under right away. The total is low for a reason; T-Mobile Park in Seattle has consistently been one of, if not the most pitcher-friendly park in the league since 2022, and the mid-40 degree weather won’t help the cause for runs. That’s on top of the fact that we have an amazing pitchers’ duel. Schlittler doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact and is excellent at inducing swinging strikes, boasting well-above-average marks in both of those areas in his short MLB career. Kirby doesn’t miss as many bats and gives up harder contact, but he was able to induce a ground ball over 60% of the time in his first start — which is encouraging against a hard-hitting New York lineup.

These bullpens have been excellent through one week, sitting top 10 in most metrics. The Yankees have surrendered just 1 earned run out of the bullpen, while the Mariners have given up 6. Plus, both ‘pens have allowed just 5 walks each. Both ERAs are well under 3.00, too. All signs point to an under, and for what it’s worth, betting unders in New York’s low-totaled, West-Coast games has been a profitable endeavor since the pitch clock was added in 2023. 

Yankees vs Mariners prediction: Under 7.5 (-122) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.