Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/25

Pricing is funky for Sunday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Atlanta Braves, in my opinion. I lean towards a lower scoring game, but the total of 7.5 is too low for me to take an under with these starters on the mound. I expect the Braves to grab a win, but there is zero shot I am backing them at current pricing. As a result, I am forced into siding with my own Pirates as they look to close their season with a 72nd win. Pittsburgh is about 3 legit bats away from a playoff berth next season given the talent and depth of their pitching staff. Their owner will prevent those acquisitions from happening, and their added bats will be veteran minimum contracts, likely. That being said, Johan Oviedo has shown signs that he has progressed nicely from his surgery, and I expect him to deliver another strong outing as he looks to continue momentum into 2026.

Charlie Morton has already had 3 seasons within 1 season this year. He began the season in atrocious form for the Orioles, being demoted to the bullpen for performance. He found a groove in the pen, however, and carried that momentum into his return to the rotation. Detroit picked him up at the trade deadline and it was a disaster with a 7.09 ERA in 39.1 innings pitched. His last outing was actually against the Braves, allowing 6 earned runs in 1.1 innings. Now he returns to the Braves for his 3rd stint with the organization. It is actually a very cool storyline to close out his long and successful career, but I have to side with his former club in the Buccos at current pricing.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves prediction: Pirates ML (+175) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.