Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/11/26

The Pittsburgh Pirates were able to win Game 1 of their 3-game series with the Chicago Cubs on Friday by a 2-0 final score. I will avoid picking a side in this game, but I do expect another starting pitching duel between quality young talents. Wrigley Field is the most wind receptive ballpark in MLB and today’s forecast is calling for 10 MPH wind blowing in from right field. Temperatures are also not warm yet in Chicago with today’s game in the mid-40’s.

Edward Cabrera made his MLB debut in 2021 for the Miami Marlins at age 22. His age 23 season flashed elite potential, posting a 3.01 ERA across 71.2 encouraging innings. Cabrera struggled to regain that form or stay healthy in 2023 and 2024, and his control of the strike zone was a major issue in his game. The right-hander put things together in 2025, however, posting a career-high 137.2 innings while maintaining a 3.53 ERA and a career-best walk rate. His performance drew a ton of potential trade suitors, but the Cubs won his sweepstakes. Through 2 starts with Chicago Cabrera has posted 11.2 scoreless innings with hefty whiff and ground ball rates.

Braxton Ashcraft has also impressed through his first 2 starts of the season. The Pittsburgh right-hander debuted as a 25-year-old last season, spending time both in the bullpen and in the rotation. With several pitchers leaving the organization this offseason Ashcraft is needed to step into a larger role and perform right away. He certainly has the stuff to do so, and early returns have been awesome with 12 innings and just 3 earned runs allowed. Ashcraft did walk 4 Reds in his season debut but bounced back with 0 walks and 8 Ks against the Orioles. Look for a slow offensive start to this game as both pitchers come out firing early.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs prediction: First 5 innings under 3.5 runs (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.