Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/28/26

As I will mention countless times this season, I am a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates. This offseason was something Pittsburgh fans have been waiting for, and that was a sign that the team was at least trying to compete. Pittsburgh signed their first multi-year free agent since 2016 by inking Ryan O’Hearn to a 2-year deal. They acquired Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Mason Montgomery from Tampa Bay in a deal involving Mike Burrows. Marcell Ozuna was signed to fill the DH spot, and Gregory Soto was brought in to fill a large role in the bullpen. Konner Griffin will be on the roster eventually this season, as will top 100 prospect Jhostynxon Garcia. For the first time in years Pirate fans have reason for hope, and 2026 should be a more competitive season for the organization.

The New York Mets also had an eventful offseason, bringing in Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Robert Jr for a new look lineup. Their pitching staff added Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Luke Weaver and Devin Williams as well. They did say goodbye to longtime Mets in Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo, but the roster does seem to be in a better place on paper heading into 2026.

New York grabbed Game 1 of this opening series by an 11-7 final score. Mishaps by Oneil Cruz resulted in 4 early runs, and Paul Skenes was only able to register 2 outs in that start. While I have high hopes for Pittsburgh this season personally, I do have concerns for Saturday’s matchup. The Pirates traded defensive flexibility for offensive firepower this offseason, and many critics believe this could be a bottom 5 defensive unit in the sport this season as a result. This puts a ton of pressure on the pitching staff to perform, especially in the strikeout department. Mitch Keller is a steady arm, but he relies heavily on the defense behind him given his ground ball nature.

Another concern of the Pirates this season is their lineup when facing left-handed pitching. It will be interesting to see if they tend to roll with a bench-heavy right-handed lineup, or if they let their higher paid lefty bats take their lumps against southpaw pitching. David Peterson will be the first southpaw to test this Pirates unit, and I believe he will find some success in this spot. The pitching environment is also solid for this matchup with temperatures in the mid to low 40’s during game time. While this is a game I would rather watch than bet on, I do lean towards a Mets win on Saturday.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets prediction: Mets ML (-168) available at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.