Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/29/26

It was a terrific matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets on Saturday, a game in which the New York Mets won in extra innings. New York trailed 2-1 in the bottom of the 11th inning before a 2-run shot from Luis Robert Jr. gave the Mets their 2nd win of the series. They will look to close things out with a sweep Sunday afternoon.

Nolan McLean is the scheduled starter for the Mets in Game 3 of the series. McLean was sharp in his rookie season, posting a 2.06 ERA across 8 starts spanning a combined 48 innings of work. His strikeout numbers were impressive, and his ground ball rate was elite, a combination I am very fond of when backing pitchers. Projection systems are fond of McLean in 2026, and so am I, especially early on in the season against teams that still haven’t seen much of his stuff.

Carmen Mlodzinski was thrust into competition for the final starting spot in the Pirates rotation to begin 2026, and he won that job over Hunter Barco, Jose Urquidy, and others. Mlodzinski tossed 99 innings across 34 appearances for Pittsburgh in 2025, 12 of which were starts. The right-hander posted a 3.55 ERA in that span with similarly strong underlying metrics. While I personally believe his services would be more valuable to this club in a multi-inning reliever role, I believe we can take advantage of the betting market with him starting as well.

Mlodzinski was lethal the first time through the order last season before falling off a cliff the 2nd time. With a focus on that weakness this offseason I believe we can get 5 strong innings in this spot. I look for McLean to hold things down on his end of the bargain, and I side with the under on the posted total through 5 innings of play. I would rather avoid bullpen play given Pittsburgh’s shaky performance so far this series and the extra inning game last night.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets prediction: First 5 innings total under 4.5 runs (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.