San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/30/25

The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs kick off their best-of-three NL wild-card series Tuesday afternoon on the north side at Wrigley Field. It’s been a minute since we’ve seen these two play, as the teams met for three in Wrigley April 4-6, with the Cubs winning two of three meetings, while the Padres took two of three in a set at Petco Park in San Diego April 14-16. So, yeah, the teams tied 3-3 in the season series, so not much to glean there. And, RHP Nick Pivetta was 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA in two starts against the Padres this season, while LHP Matthew Boyd was, yep, 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA against the Padres in two outings.

Let’s dig a little deeper to determine a winner. The public seems to be siding with the Padres, ever so slightly, but that’s possibly a mistake. Boyd struggled down the stretch, going 2-1 with a 5.47 ERA across his final five starts, with teams hitting .267 against him. He allowed four homers in that span, too. But, we was an amazing 12-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 15 starts across 89 2/3 IP at Wrigley Field this season, with an opponent average of just .209. Pivetta was just 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA across 78 2/3 IP in 14 road outings, and he served up 13 homers in that span. In his final two starts, he conceded six runs across 10 1/3 IP with a 5.23 ERA, although he had no decisions. The lean here is to Boyd and the Cubs, although it’s not as clear cut as some might think.

Cubs ML (-115) at time of publishing. Playable to -120.