Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Odds and ALDS Game 3 Picks for Today, 10/07/25

After gaining a split in two games in Seattle, the Detroit Tigers return home to host the Mariners in Game 3 of the American League Divisional Series at Comerica Park. The Mariners turn to RHP Logan Gilbert to try and seize home-field advantage back with a road victory. However, Gilbert is 3-4 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 62 2/3 IP across 12 starts, while allowing 12 homers with a .261 opponent batting average, which is 103 points higher than teams hit him at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. He also had a 2.24 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 13 starts at home.

For the Tigers, RHP Jack Flaherty did a great job in Game 3 in Cleveland, pitching Detroit to the wild-card series clincher last time out, allowing just one run, three hits and two walks across 4 2/3 IP in the no-decision. While that’s good news, he had a 5-8 record, 4.18 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts at home in the regular season, and he was 8-15 overall on the season. He is also still just 2-5 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 10 starts and one relief appearance across 51 2/3 IP in his postseason career. With Gilbert struggling on the road, and Flaherty struggling in the playoffs in his career, as well as everywhere else this season, the Over is the way to go. If the rains hold off, as there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Game 3, the winds will be blowing out at 12-14 MPH to the right-center field power alley, also aiding the Over.

Mariners vs Tigers prediction: Over 7.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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