Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 06/27/25

The Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday evening for the first game of a 3-game set between the divisional rivals. These teams met earlier this month with a 2-2 split as the result. Ryan Pepiot made a start in that series, tossing dominant 8 innings of 1-run ball with 11 strikeouts. While I don’t generally enjoy betting on starters who are tasked with a close proximity rematch, Pepiot is my preferred starting option in this game given his current form. The right-hander has a 3.04 ERA in his first 94.2 innings this season and he has been especially strong through his first 5 road starts.

Sugano did not face the Rays in that previous series between the teams, so he does benefit from a lack of familiarity from the Tampa Bay side. Still, I am not a fan of Sugano’s current form or his matchup with the Rays. The 35-year-old has a 3.55 ERA through his first 83.2 MLB innings of work, but his extremely low strikeout rate and tendency to allow barreled balls makes him hard to trust. He has allowed 8 of his 14 home runs at home so far this season despite 5.2 fewer innings pitched in Camden Yards. While Pepiot can also be prone to the home run ball, just 2 of his 14 allowed have been on the road. Tampa Bay also enters this game in better form with wins in 10 of their last 13 ballgames.

Rays vs Orioles prediction: Rays ML (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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