Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 07/04/25

Temperatures are hot in Minnesota today for this July 4 matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. Wind looks to be blowing from right field to left field, but temperatures are expected to sit in the low-to-mid 90’s. I favor the over in this spot despite the total sitting at 9.5, as neither starting pitcher is overly impressive to me. While Zack Littell has a 3.61 ERA so far this season his xERA sits at 4.56 due to a 12.0%-barrel rate, .270 xBA, and very low strikeout metrics. Minnesota was a strikeout prone lineup in previous seasons, but they have been far more contact-oriented this season and that should pay off in this matchup.

Chris Paddack is someone I profited off to begin this season due to his short leash and overall shaky performance. He had a strong stretch spanning parts of late April to early June, but his recent outings have reminded me of his early-season performances. With 8, 4, 4 and 3 earned runs allowed in his last 4 starts, allowing 29 hits and 4 home runs in that span, Paddack is not someone I trust on the mound. Tampa Bay is not my favorite offense when it comes to consistency, but they are more than capable of performing in this spot.

Rays vs Twins prediction: Over 9.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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