NBA Player Props Today: November 4 Best Bets & Picks, featuring Jaylen Brown and Ace Bailey
The NBA returns on Wednesday night after a full day off on Tuesday due to Election Day. We have a full 14-game slate ahead of us, and the premier matchup of the evening belongs to the Dallas Mavericks against the San Antonio Spurs. Sophomore Cooper Flagg is playing at an All-NBA level despite being only 19 years old, while Spurs Sophomore Dylan Harper is paying dividends after being inserted in the starting lineup. The other key matchup of the night is the Philadelphia 76ers and the Detroit Pistons in what could be an Eastern Conference Final's showdown. Philadelphia has exceeded early-season expectations with a 7-1 start; their only downfall appears to be rebounding, but their selflessness has shown through early on. Let's get into my best NBA player prop bets today, while you can also lock in our experts' NBA picks for all 14 matchups tonight and every game throughout the 2026-27 NBA season.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet: Jaylen Brown (PHI) 20+ Points (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1u
Following my points per minute x median approach, Brown checks all the boxes. He's averaging 0.56 points per minute of play and his median minutes output this season is 34:54 or 34.9, projecting us at exactly 19.544 points. His first matchup of the season against the Pistons resulted in a season high in minutes, combined with a season high in FGA; also, a season high in FTA. His downfall was that he was highly inefficient.
I'm not convinced that Ausar Thompson takes him out of the game on Wednesday night, as Thompson will struggle as a ball handler against this 76ers team and might leave the Pistons playing 4 vs 5 offensively. Brown is settling into his role and should see a minimum of 15 FGA every night for this Philadelphia team, and he's done so in six of the last seven. Last season when Brown saw 15+ FGA, he's over this line in 62 of 64 games. This likely moves to 21.5/22.5 by midseason, but we take advantage of early-season uncertainty.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Ace Bailey (UTA) Over 19.5 Points+Rebounds (-102)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1u
Bailey is averaging 0.65 PR per minute of play and a median minutes output as a starter of 31.5. This projects him safely at 20.475 P+R against the New Orleans Pelicans. He played the Pelicans in just the second game of the season, but only for 21:42 minutes and a total of 13 P+R, but it was highly inefficient and his first start of the season. I expect Bailey to be more comfortable this matchup offensively and still hitting that 6-7 rebound mark that we've seen all season (over 6+ in six of seven games).
The Pelicans are allowing the sixth-most FGM at the rim this season and the fourth-highest FG% in the paint (non-restricted), and both are Bailey's hot zones for scoring. Bailey is quietly becoming a fan-favorite for the Jazz as he's accepting his role on this Jazz team and really committing to the defensive end of late. This will get high minutes closer to or above that 30+ mark and make this 19.5 number easily obtainable.
In any over bet in the NBA, minutes are gold and Bailey is doing everything he can to secure his space on the floor. The Jazz picked up his rookie scale team option worth $9.98 million for the 2027-2028 season, which is a positive sign for his growing role in the organization going forward. Over the last three games, he's averaging 17.7 ppg and 9.3 rpg with two double-doubles.
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