Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds and Game 1 Picks for Today, 05/05/25

For the third season in a row and fourth in 5 years, the Denver Nuggets successfully jumped over the first obstacle in the NBA playoffs by eliminating the Clippers in Game 7 on Saturday. And they don’t plan on stopping there. This team has way bigger goals in mind, but in order to achieve them it has to take on the team with the best record in the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder. These 2 teams split the 4 regular-season meetings, while over the last 16 games head-to-head each team has 8 wins. Playing 7 games against the Clippers won’t do the Nuggets any favors fatigue wise.

In that 4-game regular-season series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posted averages of 30.3 points, 5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. Following a somewhat inefficient start to this postseason run, his efficiency went up in the last 2 games against Memphis in a sweep. Only the Cavs, Pacers and Celtics have a better offensive rating through the first round, while on defense the Thunder are ranked first — giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.

I could make a case for either team covering in Game 1. Denver did play 3 extra games and had to travel in between games a lot more than the Thunder did. I don’t like betting against the Nikola Jokic, especially not when he is a 9.5-point underdog. However, having won 72 of 86 games so far this year, I think SGA and company have shown they are capable of coming up big in games like these. I’m rolling with OKC.

Nuggets vs Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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