Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/27/26

Nuggets vs Thunder parlay pick: Denver Nuggets +8.5 over OKC Thunder (-114)

Optimism is back in the Nuggets camp following their impressive win over the Boston Celtics the other day. They held the Cs to just 84 points despite losing Jamal Murray early in that game to an illness. Another big win vs OKC would do wonders for the confidence of this team, it’s been a while since we’ve seen a signature performance from the Joker and this is just the ideal opportunity for him to deliver one.

The defending champs are still without SGA and Jalen Williams, and even though they are considered to be one of the deeper teams in the league, this game could be a struggle as it’s their 3rd in 4 nights. From a bettors’ perspective we’re seeing a trend in head-to-head meetings favoring the road team here. Over the last 9 games, they’ve covered in 6 of those. The first meeting of the season saw OKC triumph at Ball Arena by 10 points, let’s not underestimate the revenge factor here as well. These two teams are evenly matched, I cannot see the Thunder going up 2-0 in the regular season series. I’ll take the Nuggets to cover as part of my SGP bet, for increased odds it’s also worth considering backing them to win outright.

Nuggets vs Thunder SGP pick: Christian Braun over 1.5 made threes (+140)

We all know what the likes of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon etc. bring to the table for the Nuggets. However, I am of the belief that Christian Braun could play a vital role for them down the road in the postseason, so it’s a priority for Jokic and co. to get their shooting guard going after the All-Star break. Braun briefly returned before the break following a prolonged absence due to injuries, over the past 4 games he’s shown that Denver can count on him in big moments. He’s cleared this line in 2 of 3 games, with Murray’s potentially missing this game due to illness there is a chance Braun’s role increases substantially on offense.

We’ve seen Braun go off in recent meetings against the Thunder – the last 10 such games have seen him average 14.6 points, which isn’t too bad for only the 4th or even 5th scoring option at times. He’s knocked down at least 2 threes in 5 straight meetings and in 8 of the last 10 while shooting 35% from downtown. OKC ranks 26th in three-point percentage allowed this season, in their last 3 games that number has risen to 38.5% which is even worse than the 30th placed Brooklyn Nets who are allowing 37.4% of threes to go in.

Nuggets vs Thunder SGP pick: Cason Wallace over 2.5 assists (-136)

Cason Wallace has made big strides in his development over the past several weeks or even months of this season. He’s getting assists for fun at this point – his last 10 games have all seen him dish out at least 3 dimes, making this one of the more consistent bets in the entire NBA in the month of February. With SGA, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell continuing to missing games, the Thunder will once again rely on Wallace and his playmaking for a decent chunk of possessions.

The last time these 2 teams met, he went off for 27 points, including 7 threes made, I’m hoping he doesn’t fall in love with the three-ball early in this game. Wallace played a vital role with 5 assists last season as OKC eliminated the Nuggets in Game 7 of their West Playoffs series, a performance like that would do wonders for the shorthanded Thunder here. Denver ranks 14th for assists allowed this season at 26.7 per game, but over their last 3 games they’ve slipped a bit with opponents averaging 28.3 per game. This game will be a good measuring stick for Wallace, so let’s see if he can continue his impressive run against one of the elite teams in the West.