Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/29/25

Detroit Pistons ML over New York Knicks (+194)

Along with the Clippers vs Nuggets series, the one between the Pistons and Knicks has been one of the more entertaining in the first round of the postseason. The last 2 games went down the wire and they could have gone either way. The Pistons were very unlucky to lose Game 4 after a controversial ending in which a foul was not called on a three-point attempt as time expired. Now the series switches over to Madison Square Garden and I am of the opinion that this series is far from over.

Detroit has already won at MSG once in this series, plus they won both regular-season meetings there by 9 and 5 points. We are now entering uncharted territory for most of these Pistons players. You won’t find many Game 5 elimination scenarios on their resumes, but don’t let that discourage you from backing the road team. They led by 9 points in Game 1 and by as many as 16 in Game 4, both of which they lost due to a lack of experience playing in the big moment, but also because of some big shots hit down the stretch by KAT and others. The road team has gone on to win 3 of the 4 games in the series and I’m willing to risk it and take the Pistons to bring this series back to the Motor City.

Dennis Schroder over 10.5 points (-108)

Veteran players like Dennis Schroder and Tobias Harris are among the rare Pistons players with experience in games like these, so I expect their roles to expand significantly with the Pistons’ season on the line. Schroder has impressed in this series, averaging 13 points per game in just 28 minutes a night, contributing with some big shots when it matters the most. His defense on Jalen Brunson could also be a factor here, so don’t be surprised if he logs 30+ minutes tonight.

Since the 2015-16 season, Schroder has played in 7 elimination games and his averages read 17.3 points, 4.9 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. He’s cleared this line in all 7 of those games, while against the Knicks he’s averaging 11.3 per game in the last 10 games head-to-head. In the sole win at MSG in Game 2 of this series, Schroder played a vital role alongside Cade Cunningham, scoring 20 points. I can’t see the Pistons surviving here without a solid performance from Schroder.

Tim Hardaway Jr. over 2.5 made threes (-125)

Tim Hardaway Jr. should be fired up to do well against his former team after that controversial no-call in the final moments of Game 4. Even the refs admitted in their report after the game that there was significant contact made and a foul should have been called, which would have put Hardaway Jr. on the line for 3 free throws with the Pistons down by just a single point. That ending shouldn’t stay in the mind of the 33-year-old for long though, and his team needs him to perform in Game 5 if they want to force a Game 6 here.

Apart from a sub-par performance in Game 2, Hardaway has been a reliable option for the Pistons in this series, scoring 19, 24 and 14 in the 3 other games. He’s cleared this line in all 3 of those games, and if it wasn’t for Game 2 his efficiency from three would be at 42% for the series. For his career, he’s played in 5 elimination games so far, with the most recent ones being in the NBA Finals last season against the Celtics. He’s scored 10+ points in 4 of those 5 games while averaging 2 made threes per game. I’m confident he can up that to 3 against a Knicks defense that’s struggled defending the three-ball all year long – they ranked just 25th in opponent three-point efficiency, allowing 36.6% of shots to go in.