Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/26/25

Just 1 win over a span of 9 games and the Miami Heat are back to being a .500 team, which is a shame considering how impressive they were offensively in the first month and a half of the season. Only Toronto has a worse offensive rating during this stretch, and coincidentally, that’s the team they just lost to — scoring just 91 points in a 21-point blowout home loss. Next up for Miami, it’s an Atlanta Hawks team that knows nothing else but scoring the basketball. Could this be an opportunity to turn things around?

As expected, the return of Trae Young hasn’t yielded any positives for the Hawks. The more I see them struggle with him in the lineup, the more I am convinced they will be parting ways before the trade deadline hits. The last 4 games have seen the Hawks allow 125.8 points per 100 possessions, that’s the 2nd-lowest defensive efficiency in the entire NBA. Despite Jalen Johnson being a nightly threat for a triple-double, no effort on the defensive end means that the Hawks could be on the losing end in most games.

These two teams have won a combined 4 games over their last 20 outings, which makes getting a read on this game very difficult. However, if I had to pick, I’d still opt for backing the point total to go over. Six of Atlanta’s last 8 games have cashed on the over, including just a couple of games ago when we saw them allow 152 points against the Chicago Bulls in regulation. The Heat can still score, they just need an opponent that struggles on defense for that to happen, and Atlanta is the ideal team in that aspect. I’m taking the over.

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions: Over 245.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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