Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/05/25

Miami escaped with a huge win in their last game against the Clippers, in a game in which they led by as many as 13 points. The tough road trip continues in Denver on Wednesday, as they face the Nuggets but also the change in altitude which could be a factor here. Unlike in previous years where they played slow, the Heat are now the fastest team in the NBA averaging 108.2 possessions a night. That’s quite the increase compared to last season when the Heat were at 98.4 possessions and ranked 29th in pace. Is it sustainable to run at that rate against one of the better defenses in the NBA? That’s a question many bettors are asking themselves ahead of this game.

Denver’s style of play couldn’t be any different. After ranking 10th in pace last season, Nikola Jokic and co. are now the 2nd slowest team in the NBA averaging 93.8 possessions per game. That doesn’t mean the Nuggets don’t put up a lot of points though, this team ranks 2nd in efficiency only behind Houston averaging 120.2 points per 100 possessions. The oddsmakers have the Nuggets as double-digit favorites here and for good reason. Denver has gone 9-1 SU in 10 meetings with the Heat, plus they are 7-3 ATS in that stretch while outscoring them by 9.6 points per game.

The projected total has been set at a whopping 242.5 points here. As good as both teams have been scoring the ball, I just don’t feel like going over that number. Miami could struggle a bit running here due to the change in altitude. Plus, the two teams have made 9 and 12 threes in their last 2 games respectively, without a stable three-point shot it’s hard to see both of them scoring in the 120s here. I’ll take the under here.

Heat vs Nuggets prediction: Under 242.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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