Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Odds and NBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks for Today, 05/04/26

Timberwolves vs Spurs parlay pick: Timberwolves +13.5 (-105)

Firstly, this can be found in the Alternative Point Spread market and it allows us to avoid a push by selling half a point to also pay less vigorish. But let’s get into the market overall. This number (+13.5 or the actual number of +14 at time of writing) is being driven more by perception than matchup reality. With Anthony Edwards sidelined, the market has essentially written Minnesota off in a fresh series, inflating this spread into a range that doesn’t align with how the Timberwolves actually play. This is still a team built on structure, physicality, and defense, traits that travel well and keep games within reach. The low Total (216.5) is a show of respect for what the Wolves bring to the table fundamentally.

Yes, San Antonio looked dominant against Portland, but that series offered far less resistance than what Minnesota brings. The Wolves were in control of their previous series against Denver before the Edwards injury and still managed to grind their way through, reinforcing their identity as a resilient team that wins games by rolling up their sleeves. Laying this kind of number in a Game 1 against a disciplined defensive unit is a big ask. Minnesota doesn’t need to win outright, just stay competitive. Given their style and playoff toughness, this price offers clear value.

Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP pick: Under 215.5 (+100)

Like the first leg of our parlay, this is found in the Alternative Game Total. This leg aligns directly with how Minnesota must approach this game. Without their primary offensive engine, the Timberwolves are incentivized to slow tempo, lean into half-court sets, and prioritize defense. That naturally pushes this matchup toward a lower-scoring environment.

The low Over/Under already signals expectations of a grind, and there is enormous value on the Under especially when paired with a large underdog like Minnesota. Low-scoring games compress margins, making it easier for teams catching significant points to stay within range. That correlation is key: fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities for San Antonio to create separation.

Minnesota has already shown it can dictate pace against stronger offensive teams by clogging lanes and forcing contested looks. If they replicate that blueprint here, this game stays tight and methodical. Taking the Under not only fits the expected style but also complements the Timberwolves spread in a cohesive betting approach. Selling a point to get the Under at 215.5 on the Alternative Game Total allows the parlay to have an even greater return and if Minnesota competes, they likely cover the spread and keep the total well under.

Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP pick: Mike Conley over 11.5 points+rebounds+assists (-110)

This is a role-and-opportunity play more than anything else. Conley is a veteran point guard who understands playoff basketball as well as anyone, and in a spot like this, Minnesota is going to lean on that experience. With Anthony Edwards out, Conley’s minutes and on-ball responsibilities saw a clear uptick, which directly feeds into his production across all three categories. We saw that in Game 6 against Denver where he logged 26 minutes and put up 7 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists, comfortably clearing this number. His regular season PRA may sit just over 9, but that doesn’t account for playoff usage or current circumstances.

Conley’s ability to facilitate (consistently around 3+ assists) offense, combined with increased touches and potential scoring opportunities, gives him multiple paths to cash this ticket. Add in his defensive prowess overall which can translate into extra rebound chances on any given night, and the volume is there. In this setting, his experience and enhanced role make this number beatable. Conley is a pitbull and a gamer, and he knows better than any what is at stake in Game 1 here, expect the best from him, and that translates to a high probability of clearing this number too.