Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Game 3 Picks for Today, 05/09/25

The NBA Playoffs keep rolling along on Friday, and the nightcap features a Western Conference battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of their series. The first couple of games of this series couldn’t have gone more differently for each team, as Denver rallied from nearly 20 points down to upset the Thunder in the final seconds of Game 1, while Oklahoma City bounced back in a major way by scoring 149 points on the Nuggets en route to a wire-to-wire rout to even the series. With the Nuggets having stolen home court from the top seed, the action shifts to Ball Arena for what is sure to be an extremely entertaining contest on Friday. And while the Thunder are coming into this game with supreme confidence following that impressive showing in Game 2, I’m of the opinion that we’ll see a much closer contest on Friday.

There is a path for Denver to play a lot better in a home environment where the Nuggets typically thrive, particularly in this postseason. Outside of Nikola Jokic’s masterful performance, the Nuggets did a lot of things wrong in Game 1, yet Denver was still able to claw out a victory in a game where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tallied 33 points and Alex Caruso played the best playoff game of his career. With that in mind, even if the Thunder are able to win the turnover battle and get easy buckets in transition, I still have faith in Denver’s ability to completely dominate on the glass and generate crucial second-chance looks against an otherwise elite Oklahoma City defense.

It’s also worth noting that Jokic and the Nuggets were dealt a bit of a questionable whistle in Game 2, and their fortunes should turn a bit now that the series is shifting locations for Friday’s matchup. Whether it’s in transition or the halfcourt setting, I’m still anticipating a strong game for the Nuggets’ offense, especially with Jokic, Jamal Murray and company coming off their worst game of the postseason to this point. Denver’s defense should turn in a much stronger performance at home, and things can only improve for the offense. Therefore, I’ll back the Nuggets to keep things within 2 possessions in this game.

Thunder vs Nuggets prediction: Nuggets +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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