Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 05/11/25

The team with the best overall record this season finds itself in a difficult situation, down 2-1 with a road game at Ball Arena on Sunday afternoon. In many ways this is a must-win game for OKC, they’ve actually done a solid job on the 3-time MVP Jokic in this series and yet they find themselves trailing after 3 games. SGA has failed to live up to his reputation, Game 3 saw him go for just 18 points on 7-for-22 shooting. There is one positive to take away from that game despite the loss though and that’s the Thunder’s effort in the rebounding department. They recorded 5 more boards than the Nuggets, with 18 of them coming on the offensive end. Will they be able to convert that in a win on Sunday?

Denver is now 4-2 ATS/SU in 6 meetings, but despite that they find themselves in an underdog situation for the 4th time in this series. Joker and co. won’t really care too much about that, given how this series has gone so far. It’s quite evident that OKC has more depth, but so far the experience of Denver has proven to give them the edge. I’m willing to bet Jokic won’t go 8-for-25 from the field and 0-for-10 from three in back-to-back games, it’s been a while since we had a dominant performance from the Joker, perhaps that’s a sign of things to come on Sunday? Denver has only 1 loss in 6 home games, plus they’ve covered the spread in 5 of 7 overall.

All the pressure is on OKC to respond here, going down 3-1 would put them in a really difficult situation. Denver has played well enough to make me feel comfortable backing them on a game-to-game basis in this series. With an improved Jokic game there’s no way they are losing by more than 6 points here. Back the home team to cover.

Thunder vs Nuggets Predictions: Nuggets +6 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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