Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds and Game 3 Picks for Wednesday, 06/11/25

Oklahoma City Thunder -5 over Indiana Pacers (-114)

Even though the Thunder’s form in road games this postseason hasn’t been all that impressive (0-7 ATS and 4-3 SU), that shouldn’t discourage bettors from backing them in Game 3. For starters, the spread is now down to single digits after we saw it go up to as much as 11 points in the Thunder’s favor in Game 2. In the 4 meetings played during the regular season and playoffs, OKC has won 3 times and each of those victories was by more than 5 points. This is the perfect opportunity for them the seize control of this series and demoralize Indiana by winning the first game played on their court. Only once in the last 20 games against Eastern Conference opponents did the Thunder lose, which was in Game 1 of this series.

Speaking of that Game 1 victory, it was as unlikely as they come. The Thunder have thoroughly dominated this series so far, building leads of 15+ points in both matchups, and if Haliburton didn’t go nuclear down the stretch of the series opener, we would likely be discussing a possible sweep here. Sure, the Pacers will likely come out with a lot of energy since the game will be played in their own arena, but weathering the storm is something the Thunder specialize in.

SGA has been a monster in both games — he’s averaging 37.5 points per game in the 4 meetings this year while shooting over 52% from the field and 52.4% from three on 5.3 makes per game. He’s also punishing the Pacers from the charity stripe by converting over 90% of his attempts on almost 11 per game. Indiana just isn’t built to handle him here. I believe the Thunder have what it takes to win this one comfortably and take control of the NBA Finals.

Alex Caruso 2+ made threes (+128)

You’ve probably heard the story of 2 Thunder bench players outscoring Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton in Game 2. Well, one of those players was Alex Caruso, who went deep into his bag en route to score 20 points in just 27 minutes played. He went 6-for-11 from the field and 4-for-8 from three, while also delivering a masterful defensive performance.

The series now moves to Indy for the next 2 games, but I do not believe Caruso will be fazed too much. His championship experience from the 2020 bubble season with the Lakers is proving to be very valuable here and I’m sure the Thunder will continue using him heavily in the coming games of this series. He’s averaging 1.8 threes per game in his last 10 on almost 42% efficiency. With the tempo expected to increase significantly in Game 3, there should be plenty of opportunities for Caruso to drain a pair in Game 3 as well.

Aaron Nesmith 2+ made threes (-245)

Another player who is hoping to take advantage of the increase in tempo is Aaron Nesmith, who has come up big in this postseason for Indiana. He’s averaging 12.8 points per game in his last 10 outings. At first, that might not sound like a lot, but we have to keep in mind that he’s only 3rd or even 4th in the scoring hierarchy on this Pacers roster. Game 1 and Game 2 of this series have both seen him score in double-figures; he’s now done that in 8 of his last 10 games this postseason.

Nesmith is at 2.6 threes made per game during this stretch on 46.4% efficiency, with the highlight being Game 1 of the Knicks series in which he went 8-for-9 from three. Pacers fans are certainly hoping for another performance like that, and if he can get it going in this game early then anything is possible. Let’s roll with Nesmith to drain a pair of threes for the 4th consecutive game to bring home our Thunder vs Pacers Same Game Parlay.