Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/23/25

It took him a while to get going, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reminded everyone exactly why he won last year’s regular-season and NBA Finals MVPs. Despite shooting just 1-for-9 from 3, SGA finished the season opener with 35 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists as his Thunder pulled out a narrow double-OT win over Houston. Jalen Williams’ absence was felt, but Chet Holmgren more than stepped up with his 28 points and 7 rebounds. The bench unit was also stellar with Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Ajay Mitchell chipping 34 points. Now the defending champs face the team they beat in last year’s finals, as they aim to go up 2-0 on the young season. OKC swept the regular-season series 2-0 last year, with SGA dropping 45 and 33 points in those 2 games.

Unlike their opponent, the Pacers have yet to play a game — which means this will be their season opener in front of the home fans on Thursday. This team exceeded even the wildest expectations with its magical trip to the NBA Finals last season, but repeating that is very unlikely this season. We might not see their franchise player Tyrese Haliburton at all this year as he recovers from an Achilles’ injury. Myles Turner is also gone, so we it’s a vastly different squad compared to the one from last season. Still, you can never just rule out a Rick Carlisle-led team. I expect the Pacers players to give it their all and be in the play-in mix toward the end of the regular season.

OKC failed to cover vs Houston on Tuesday and it is once again -7.5 favorites. On paper the Thunder are a vastly superior team, but it will be an emotional night for the Pacers — who play in front of their own fans for the first time since their NBA Finals run. I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and back the home team to keep things close.

Thunder vs Pacers prediction: Indiana +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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