Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/17/26

All is well in OKC land following a 5-0 SU run over the past 10 days or so. The defense has once again started to click and was the main reason for the last 2 wins over Houston and San Antonio, as neither team could crack the century mark. A performance like that would go a long way in South Beach on Saturday as the Thunder face the fastest-paced offense in the NBA. They beat the Heat 124-112 just 6 days ago at home, the return leg sees the defending champs go into it as 8-point favorites. Just like in that first game, they will once again be without Isaiah Hartenstein (out with a calf injury).

It hasn’t been the best start to a calendar year for the Heat, who are only 3-5 SU over their last 8 games. The offense has fallen off a cliff; only the Washington Wizards are scoring more points per 100 possessions during this stretch of play. Entering a game against the defending champs on that type of run is concerning, and the Thunder rank fourth in defense since the turn of the year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Davion Mitchell being ruled out isn’t helping, either, and Tyler Herro is also questionable with toe and rib injuries.

The Heat need a win badly to start turning things around, but wishes are one thing and reality is something completely different. This team has struggled to score points; it’s hard to expect the Heat to have a breakout performance against the best defense in the NBA. I’ll take the Thunder to cover.

Thunder vs Heat prediction: Oklahoma City -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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