Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 05/24/25

We’re changing locations in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, as the Minnesota Timberwolves are set to host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. The first two games of this series have gone the way of the Thunder, with both victories coming in convincing fashion thanks to a pair of massive third quarters from Oklahoma City that turned those games into blowouts. However, with the series shifting to Minnesota, historical data suggests that the Timberwolves should be able to bounce back and make this a series at home.

After complaining about the officiating around newly-minted MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander following Game 1, the Timberwolves got out of their game on the defensive side of the ball in Game 2, which is exactly what Oklahoma City wants. These two games in Oklahoma City were likely Chris Finch’s worst playoff losses of his Minnesota playoff career, with things feeling eerily similar to how the Western Conference Finals went last year against the Mavericks. With that said, things should turn for Minnesota in this game, especially from a shot variance perspective. After all, the Timberwolves role players should shoot at a considerably better clip from beyond the arc at home, while Oklahoma City will likely get fewer free-throw attempts away from its building. Furthermore, what has really killed Minnesota is how badly the Wolves have gotten crushed from a turnover disparity perspective, particularly in those disastrous third quarters. Therefore, if Anthony Edwards and company are able to minimize those live-ball mistakes, that should take away a number of chances for Oklahoma City to get out on the break and generate easy points in transition. All things considered, I’ll take Minnesota to get in the win column at home.

Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction: Timberwolves ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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