Oklahoma City Thunder vs New York Knicks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/04/26

Thunder vs Knicks parlay pick: New York Knicks ML over OKC Thunder (+154)

SGA opted to sit last night’s OKC game at Chicago, and the Thunder still won by 8 points despite shooting 24% from three and getting outrebounded 53-51 on the glass. With the MVP back tonight, those types of numbers cannot happen again, and a team like the Knicks is far too experienced to lose a game when the opponent shoots like that. It’s been 7 games since the Thunder shot 50% from the field in a game, and with their 2nd-best player Jalen Williams sidelined, they’ll have to be on top of their game to beat the Knicks here. Unlike the Thunder, who are 3-7 SU in back-to-back scenarios this season, the Knicks have a winning record of 6-4 SU in 10 such games.

Brunson and company will be encouraged after yet another dominant win over the Toronto Raptors last night, as they cruised to a 4-game regular season sweep, 111-95. A big factor to consider here is the Knicks’ advantage in the rebounding department, where they rank 6th for rebounds allowed, compared to the Thunder, who are 25th. After seeing what the Knicks did to the Spurs last Sunday at home, I have a lot of trust in this team. SGA, Hartenstein and Ajay Mitchell are all questionable to play for OKC, while Williams is out. The Knicks are only without Miles Bridges, and their healthiness could give them the edge.

Thunder vs Knicks SGP pick: Jalen Brunson 3+ made threes (-115)

Big-time players make big-time plays, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting out of Jalen Brunson for Wednesday’s game. He was once again the Knicks’ high point man with 26 last night in the win over Toronto, and this team will only go as far as Brunson takes them. There’s no better test than playing the defending champions.

The 5 most recent meetings have seen Brunson average 27.4 points, and with him shooting the three-ball at a stable 38% this season, he should look to make the most out of OKC’s struggles defending the perimeter. The Thunder allow opponents to shoot 36.7% from downtown this season, and on the road that number rises to 37%. The Knicks will likely look to exploit all the flaws the Thunder have here. Brunson’s success rate clearing this line is at 53% this season (31/58 games), but over the past 10 outings, he’s done it 6 times. Let’s hope for a quality performance from him in a memorable win for the Knicks at MSG.

Thunder vs Knicks SGP pick: Chet Holmgren 8+ rebounds (-150)

I mentioned the disadvantage the Thunder have in the rebounding department here, and with Isaiah Hartenstein being questionable to play, it’ll once again be up to Chet Holmgren to keep the Knicks off the glass. Holmgren has had a couple of monster rebounding games lately, with the highlight being 21 rebounds against the Nuggets over the weekend. We’re seeing a different Chet following the all-star break – in 6 games since then, he’s averaging 12 boards per game, quite the improvement over the 9 per game he’s averaged before that.

With both teams playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back, I expect the defensive intensity to go up a notch, and I quite like Holmgren’s chances of getting 8 rebounds in a somewhat low-scoring game here. He’s cleared this line in 69% of games this season (38/55) and in 17 of 27 on the road (63%).