San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions

Fri 4/9 9:10 ET
San Antonio Spurs
Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Point Spread Prediction
DEN Nuggets
Game Totals Prediction

Point Spread Prediction

The Spurs have just hit the road after a long, unsuccessful homestand. They were home for 11 games and won oly twice. Then they went to Denver and lost by ten. They were not favoured, but that is a tough way to start a road trip and now they to play the Nuggets on the road again. This is either a terrible fortune in scheduling or a major chance at redemption. This is a team falling off the rails. They are a young group too, so they do not have the experience with these sort of challenges. 

Denver might have made the best deal at the trade deadline in picking up forward Aaron Gordon. This was already a good team but they seem to have found just the right player to make them better. His numbers are not going to jump out at you but the team has won all seven games he has played in. His all-around game meshes really well with what the Nuggets needed. Things are rolling so well for the Nuggets that they won and covered without Jamal Murray on Wednesday night. 

These teams just met a couple of days ago with Denver winning by ten points as a five-point favourite. On its own, that is probably enough to move the line and it has, by a couple of points. One key thing to watch for is whether Murray will play. He is questionable for this one and it is hard to know whether the line shift is an insight into his status or just a reflection of the growing gap between the teams. Either way, the Nuggets look like the right side tonight. This team is rolling, 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, while the Spurs are reeling. The loss on Wednesday dropped them under .500 for the season and you have to wonder if they are finding their proper level as opposed to just going through a tough stretch. Whether Murray plays tonight or not the Nuggets are still the play.

Take Denver.

Game Totals Prediction

The Spurs just scored 96 points in the loss at Denver a couple of days ago. With the new scheduling wrinkles of this season, they are playing in Denver once again on Friday. Usually, Denver is able to rely on fatigue and playing at altitude to slow down their opponents but there really isn’t regular-season data for a situation like this. In that case, it is best to keep this handicap simple. Denver is, and should continue to be a better defensive team with Gordon in the mix. Meanwhile, there seems to be no immediate antidote for the struggles of the Spurs. They made only 25 percent of their threes the other night but they are hardly a great shooting team so they can definitely struggle there again. Unlike the spread, this number has held steady. Look for another under.

Computer Model Picks & Projections

The Pickswise supercomputer creates pre-game probabilities using machine learning techniques as inputs to a Monte Carlo approach. This means we simulate a sporting event 10,000 times, catering for the deep range of outcomes and probabilities within a given event. We first predict the performance of each individual player based on hundreds of algorithmic variabilities which we use to run our event simulations. The probabilities themselves are dynamic in nature and are updated as new information such as team news, weather conditions, and movement within betting markets become available. We consider a value bet as one which identifies a discrepancy between our projections and the prevailing betting markets. The ability to consistently identify anomalies between our consolidated projections and sportsbook odds provides you with an increased chance of being a successful gambler and having longterm success.

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