2022 Josh Allen futures: MVP odds, passing yards & best bets

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball during the second half in a AFC Divisional playoff football game against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Photo of Keith

Keith

NFL · 2 weeks ago

Show Bio

A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

It was an excellent regular season for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in 2021, but one coin flip virtually ended their 2021 campaign. The Kansas City Chiefs won the coin toss in overtime and scored to win the AFC Championship. It was a gut-wrenching loss for Buffalo, and with even higher expectations in 2022 Allen has a lot to live up to.

Josh Allen futures odds and bets

Josh Allen regular-season passing yards

Over 4400.5 (-120)
Under 4400.5 (+100)

Allen has thrown for at least 4,400 yards in back-to-back seasons, but it has come down to the last game both times. Allen threw for 4,544 yards in 2020 (16 games) and then 4,407 last season (17 games) — just barely going over this year’s set total. Some might be surprised that his total is set lower than Tom Brady’s, Justin Herbert’s or even Derek Carr’s, but it’s important to remember Buffalo isn’t the most pass-friendly stadium during football season. Five of the Bills’ final 9 games of the season will take place in Buffalo during October, November and December. Essentially they will be playing in a lot of cold-weather games, which isn’t the best for passing. They will also play in New England and Chicago in those last 9 games, so they won’t have many warm conditions after the first half of the season.

For his receiving corps, Allen has a solid group made of Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Jamison Crowder and Dawson Knox, but the Bills lack talent at receivers after those 4. Diggs will continue to be Allen’s favorite target to get downfield and Knox should once again be the red-zone threat, but with all things considered, Allen probably won’t throw for over 4,400 yards. I expect him just below at around 4,200 to 4,400, so I’ll take the under on this bet

Read our NFL MVP predictions, which includes a +2000 longshot

Josh Allen regular-season passing touchdowns

Over 35.5 (-110)
Under 35.5 (-110)

The Bills’ quarterback threw 36 touchdowns last season, just narrowly above this 2022 line. In 2021 he tossed 37 TD strikes. It will likely come down to Week 17 to see if Allen will go over or under this total, but as long as he stays healthy he should once again throw for at least 36 scores. In 2021, the Bills scored on 66.28% of red zone opportunities, the highest rate in the league. Some of that success was thanks to Devin Singletary, but the majority was because of Allen’s accuracy in the red zone — and his legs.

At 6’5” and 237 pounds, Allen is one of the biggest quarterbacks in the league. He is also one of the most athletic play-callers in the league and is a threat to run, as he did a lot in 2021. Allen totaled 763 yards on the ground last season and I expect him to be on the move a lot in 2022, so that allows Buffalo to extend drives and gives Allen more chances at throwing touchdowns.

Josh Allen MVP odds

Allen is the favorite to win NFL MVP in 2022 at both DraftKings and FanDuel, but you can still find his odds at +700. The Bills are projected to have a top-three defense this season, and if Allen can improve on his 2021 season then they will be one of the toughest teams to beat. Allen has a real a chance at this award, so getting him at +700 odds at FanDuel or DraftKings right now appears to have great value.

Best bet: Josh Allen over 35.5 touchdowns (-110)

As mentioned above, I’m sticking with Allen to record 36 touchdowns for his third season in a row. Buffalo does have one of the tougher schedules in the league, but that’s one of the only drawbacks to this bet. Diggs and Knox will continue to be Allen’s favorite targets, and Singletary will have a larger role at the line of scrimmage this season for dump passes. I believe Allen will build off his 2021 season and once again be a top quarterback in the NFL, while throwing nearly 40 touchdown passes.

Now read our best Tom Brady futures bets

Pickswise is the home of free expert NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the 2022 NFL season.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.