2022 Tom Brady futures: MVP odds, passing yards & best bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) waits in the tunnel before playing the Los Angeles Rams during a NFC Divisional playoff football game at Raymond James Stadium.
Photo of Keith

Keith

NFL · 1 week ago

Show Bio

A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

Just a week after a 30-27 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, who would go on to win the Super Bowl, Tom Brady announced his retirement from the NFL. However, that lasted only 40 days; Brady announced in March that he would return for the 2022 season on a 1-year contract. At 45 years old, this could be his final NFL season — but then again we have been saying that for 5 years.

Widely considered the greatest quarterback of all time, Brady has won 7 Super Bowls and 5 Super Bowl MVP awards. In his first season in Tampa Bay in 2020, Brady and company won the Buccaneers their second NFL championship.

Now in his third season with Tampa Bay, Brady continues to grow his legend in year 22 of his NFL career.

Tom Brady futures bets

Tom Brady regular-season passing yards odds

Over 4650.5 (+100)
Under 4650.5 (-120)

Brady eclipsed this number by more than 600 yards last season and came up 17 yards short in 2020. He has been so successful in Tampa Bay for several reasons, one being its excellent offensive line that will be led by Shaq Mason and Tristan Wirfs in 2022. The second is the Buccaneers’ receivers. Brady’s group of receivers continues to get stronger each season as he is projected to have Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage as his four main WR targets in 2022. Evans has always been the No. 1 receiver for the Buccaneers in his career and one of Brady’s favorite targets during the last two seasons, but the addition of Jones makes the Tampa Bay offense dangerous.

Injury is the easiest way to derail this bet because if Brady misses more than a game or two, he likely won’t be able to reach this mark. However, the 7-time champion has not missed a game due to an injury as a Buccaneer. In fact, not since 2008 has Brady missed a game because of an injury. Being able to play the majority of games is crucial for this bet, and Brady has been able to do that basically throughout his entire career. Another star receiver gets Brady a step closer to another 5,000-yard season, so I expect him to surpass this 4650.5 mark in 2022.

Read our NFL MVP predictions, which includes a +2000 longshot

Tom Brady regular-season passing touchdowns odds

Over 35.5 (-110)
Under 35.5 (-110)

Since coming to Tampa Bay, Brady has thrown 83 touchdowns. He has had great receivers, but he has also managed to stay very healthy. He has easily surpassed 35.5 touchdowns in both seasons as a Buccaneer, and this upcoming season should be no different. Brady didn’t lose many weapons on offense besides Rob Gronkowski, but with Gronk’s weak knees he was becoming more of a blocking tight end toward the end of his career anyway. Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph will take over the responsibilities of tight end, and they could be perfect red-zone targets for Brady. Besides Brate and Rudolph for big targets and Jones and Evans for deep ball threats, Brady also had Leonard Fournette in the backfield.

If you have ever watched Brady play, you know he loves to use the dump pass when pressured, and Fournette benefited from that last season — especially in the red zone. Fournette led all running backs with targets in the red zone in 2021, and despite him looking slightly overweight in preseason practice, he’ll see another fair share of targets this season which is another chance Brady has for a passing touchdown. With no more Ronald Jones, the Buccaneers will rely even more on their passing attack, so Brady should eclipse 40 touchdowns for the 3rd year in a row.

Tom Brady MVP odds

Brady currently sits at +800 at both DraftKings and FanDuel to win the MVP award. Josh Allen is the favorite at each shop, which isn’t too surprising considering the excellent season he had in 2021 and the high expectations for him in 2022. The last time Brady won the MVP award was in 2017 and he became the oldest player in NFL history to win it (40 years old). Since that point, he has won two Super Bowls and continued to defy Father Time. Oddsmakers are expecting another big season for Brady with such close odds to Allen, and it makes sense when considering all his weapons on the field. If you feel confident that Brady will win his 4th MVP in 2022, you can place that bet now at DraftKings or FanDuel at +800 odds.

Best bet: Tom Brady to lead NFL in passing yards (+800)

Brady led the NFL in passing yards by more than 300 yards in 2021. Justin Herbert was the runner-up and is the favorite to win the passing title in 2022, but I believe Brady can go back-to-back. He will be playing about half his games in the nice climate of Florida, which means he no longer has to worry about snowstorms as he did in New England — which caused the passing game to become obsolete. Moreover, the Buccaneers are projected to have a top-three defense that will likely cause a lot of 3-and-outs and more time with the ball for Brady. He is completely healthy with one of the most talented wide receiving groups in the NFL, so at +800 he’s worth a shot.

Now read our best Josh Allen futures bets

Pickswise is the home of free expert NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the 2022 NFL season.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.