Best expert NFL player prop bets for Week 4's early 1pm games: Davis Mills set up for success

Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills (10) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium.
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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


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Player Props have been slow to trickle in this week, but I have some early lines that caught my eye. In general, these will be “living documents” that can become updated as we get closer to Sunday. If I see more lines, I will update the existing article based on the time frame and be sure to tweet it out once new plays drop. Thank you for tailing through 3 weeks, we are 28-20 (56%) on the year!

Now, let’s dive into my favorite plays so far for the NFL Week 4 early slate, but make sure you also check out the Pickswise team’s NFL picks on the side and total of EVERY game this week.

Davis Mills, QB, HOU Over 21.5 completions (-120) 

Line available at the time of publishing on DraftKings sportsbook.

The Chargers are allowing 24.7 completions per game (24th overall) and 66.6% competition percentage to opposing QBs (22nd). Their soft zone scheme allows for a lot of underneath passes to be completed to prevent the big play. This works in Davis Mills’ favor, who has dropped back an average of 35 times per game this season. I project him to have 23 completions, and Joey Bosa moving to IR should give Davis a little more time to operate. The Chargers rank 13th overall in run defense according to PFF and 24th in coverage. This lines up well for Davis to be relied upon heavily and have a big day. I’m on this for 1.5U.

Be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans predictions

Elijah Moore, WR, NYJ, Over 40.5 receiving yards (-120) 

Line available at the time of publishing on DraftKings sportsbook.

Zach Wilson makes his first start of the 2022 season this Sunday against the Steelers. While rookie WR Garrett Wilson is drawing much of the attention, I expect Wilson to rely on a familiar face to get himself settled. Moore has hit this in 3 straight games this season and when Pittsburgh is in nickel defense, he should draw Levi Wallace in coverage. Wallace is ranked 58th in coverage according to PFF. This line is considerably low, but it’s primarily due to Wilson’s uncertainty in his first start. Moore has had an 18+ yard reception in all 3 games this season, with a long of 24. I project Moore will need 4 receptions to hit this and should be in line for 8+ targets. I’m on it for 1U.

Be sure to check out our full New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions

Michael Pittman, WR, IND Over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)

Line available at the time of publishing on DraftKings sportsbook.

Pittman came back strong in Week 3 with 9 targets, 8 receptions and 72 yards. He is the clear-cut WR1 in this Colts offense and hit this line in both games last season against the Titans. Tennessee has given up big performances to opposing WRs through the first 3 weeks. Sterling Shepard and Richie James combined for 130 yards receiving, Stefon Diggs exploded in Week 2 for 12 receptions and 148 yards, while Mack Hollins had the best game of his career last week with 8 receptions and 158 yards. Pittman is averaging 11 targets in 2 starts. If Pittman’s line stays under 70 yards, he has the perpetual green light from me. Put me down for 1U.

Be sure to check out our full Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts predictions

Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI Over 3.5 receptions -144

Line available at DraftKings at the time of publishing.

This line is an overreaction to last weeks down performance, but it was an ugly game for all 4 quarters. Goedert only played 64% of the snaps (lowest of the season), but still managed 3 receptions on 4 targets. Jacksonville has significantly improved on defense this season regarding a pass rush, but they’re middle of the pack in Coverage (15th) and 28th in tackling. Logan Thomas hit this line against the Jaguars Week 1 and they have not faced a top tier TE since. I’m expecting a competitive game Sunday, so we should see Goedert on the field to 80% of the snaps. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins is one of the worst coverage safeties in the league, ranking 67th/ 72 according to PFF. 1U from me.

Be sure to check out our full Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions.

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