Best expert NFL player prop bets for Week 6's early 1:00 games: Tom Brady is hitting his stride

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws before the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


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Five games into the NFL season and we’re still figuring out most of these teams. The top tier has been established and the basement is reserved for the Carolina Panthers. Other than that, the middle of this league is littered with 2-3 and 3-2 teams. We’ve had success early on (57% +8U), but the lines will become sharper. Injury reports are getting larger by the week and it’s pivotal to track late scratches for player props. I will update this article as we get closer to Sunday but want to get out plays as I see value. Make sure you follow me on twitter for more up to date info on player props @PropHolliday.

Check out our full Sunday analysis here.

Tom Brady, QB, TB Over 277.5 passing yards (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Brady has hit this in 2 straight games and it’s not a coincidence that it aligns with the Bucs WR core getting healthy. The Steelers come into Sunday hobbled in the secondary with FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB Cameron Sutton and CB Ahkello Witherspoon nursing  injuries. They were all out of practice on Thursday and their status on Sunday is in question. CB Levi Wallace is in concussion protocol, as well. Bottom line: the Steelers’ secondary with either look depleted or in bad shape come Sunday against a surging Bucs team. Pittsburgh has only played two QBs this season that are in the “top tier” of the NFL — Josh Allen (432) and Joe Burrow (338) — and both blew this line out of the water. The only fear with this play is the game getting out of hand and Tampa Bay puts the brakes on pushing the ball downfield. While I think TB wins handedly, it’s not before Brady hits the 300 mark. 1.5U for me.

Marcus Mariota, QB, ATL to throw an INT (+100)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Mariota had thrown a pick in 3 straight games this season before that streak come to an end last week against the Bucs. The 49ers have one of the best front 4s in football that will limit the Falcons’ ability to establish the run and likely force them to play from behind. The 49ers have recorded an INT in 4 of 5 games this season. Mariota is ranked 5th in the league amongst qualified QBs in “turnover-worthy play rate,” with 5.1% of plays at risk of being a turnover. He only trails Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston. I’m shocked to see these odds sitting at +100, but I’ll take the bait. 1U play for me.

Michael Carter, RB, NYJ Over 29.5 rushing yards (-101)

Line available at Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing. 

While Carter’s snap count decreases, his touches have remained flat over 5 weeks. He is averaging 10 rushes per game over the last 3 weeks despite hovering around that 45% snap share with rookie Breece Hall. The Packers are graded out as a bottom-3 team in the league in rush defense according to PFF and have allowed 5.1 YPC (27th). The Jets’ offense will continue to deploy 2 RBs and has averaged 31 rush attempts per game over the last 2 (since Wilson returned). This would be good for 6th overall extrapolated for the entire season. I expect Carter to get his 10 touches and has breakaway ability to hit this in far fewer attempts. The Packers’ defense is a great matchup for Carter and establishing there run game is pivotal to success on the road for the Jets. There have been 3 RB2s to hit this against the Packers during the 2022 campaign in Alexander Mattison (36), Khalil Herbert (38) and Rhamondre Stevenson(66). 1U and you can play up to 31.5.

Joe Mixon Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing

Mixon is coming off his best performance of the season, averaging 5.5YPC against the Ravens and is heading to New Orleans this Sunday. The Saints are allowing 4.6 YPC to opposing RB’s and 4 of 5 starting RB’s have hit this line against them this season. Most sportsbooks have Mixon’s carry total set at 16.5 and 17.5 in some areas, implying a heavy workload. When Mixon has 16 carries in a game, he’s hit this line in 27/41 (65%). Much of the hype is around Burrow and Chase returning to New Orleans, but I’m on his RB to steal the show. 0.5U from me. Okay up to 66.5

Dalvin Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+128)

Line available at Fanduel at the time of publishing.

Cook is running roughly 20 passing routes per game this season and that number has gotten as high 31 in Week 2. He’s cleared this number in 2 of 5 games but returns home to his native city of Miami on Sunday. The Dolphins have been Jekyll and Hyde against pass catching RBs this season. The entire Patriots backfield had a field day in week 1, combining for 7 receptions. Devin Singletary had 9 receptions for 78 yards in Week 3. And Joe Mixon hauled in 4 receptions in Week 4. Breece Hall famously took a pass 79 yards to the house last week against the Dolphins. Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell has a good amount of tape to suggest getting Cook involved in the pass game is a recipe for success. Vikings back up RB Alexander Mattison has been limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury, so we could see Cook’s snap count increase slightly more than usual in front of his family and friends. 2 receptions is Cooks floor, but given the circumstances and plus odds, I’ll put 0.5U on Cook getting his 3rd reception to hit this line against Miami.

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