Best expert NFL player prop bets for Week 6's late 4:25 pm games: Kelce breaks the zone

Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


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We are without a London game this week, which makes our late-afternoon slate a little more interesting. The game of the week, Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs, will have the most eyes on it. However, I have also found great value in another matchup later in the day.

Pay another visit to this space later in the week for some more late additions, as well!

Also check out our full Sunday NFL analysis.

Travis Kelce, TE, KC Over 77.5 receiving yards (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

I’m viewing this like a playoff game for both teams. And for that I have to revert back to Kelce’s production against the Bills in playoffs these last two years: 118 yards and 96 yards. Kelce has only hit this in 2 of games this season, but he is still averaging 8 targets per game. The Chiefs have been shown a surprising amount of man coverage this season, but the Bills enter the game still banged up on defense. We can expect the Chiefs to see a lot more zone looks than they have this season, which bodes well for Kelce. He has a team-high 18 targets for 13.6 yards per reception against zone coverage in 2022. The increased amount of man coverage could explain the down numbers we have seen lately from Kelce. I’m on this for 2U and would play up to 79.5.

Rondale Moore, WR, ARI Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Moore has been back for 2 games and has see 13 targets in that stretch. He has assumed the position of slot WR for the Cardinals and faces a Seattle secondary that has struggled against that position this season. Moore has a 91% route rate and for a Cardinals offense that has questions at RB with James Conner and Darrel Williams sidelined, Moore could be in for a BIG day. Slot receivers against the Seahawks have averaged 11.5 yards per attempt allowed, a QB rating of 139.3 and an explosive pass-play rate of 35.7% according to PFF. CB Justin Coleman is one of the lowest-graded nickel CBs of the last 3 years, so it’s a great spot for Moore to take advantage of thar. I expect Moore to be in for another 4 to 5 receptions against the Seahawks, with a few splash plays in the mix. This is a 1.5U play from me and his alt lines at 60+ and 70+ should be considered when they become available.

Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR Over 19.5 receiving yards (-114)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

News broke on Friday afternoon that Cam Akers will not play on Sunday and his future with the team is in question. That leaves Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown as the only two RB’s available against the Panthers. This Rams offense relies heavily on getting their RBs involved in the passing game and unfortunately, pass catching is not in Brown’s wheelhouse.  Henderson has hit this number in 2/5 games this season but was exclusively last week in the pass catching role. So much so that he didn’t record a single rush attempt. The Panthers have done a solid job all season against pass catching RBs, but the levies broke last week when Tevin Coleman and Kyle Juszczyk both eclipsed this number. James Conner did the same the week before. With the Rams being 10-point favorites, I expect Henderson so be on the field 65-70% of the time and should get 4 to 5 targets. If the Rams go back to being heavier in play action (as they should) than this number could be met by halftime. This is a 1U play for me. Play up to 23.5. I will also being play his alt lines when available up to 40 for more juice.

Kyler Murray, QB, ARI Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120)

Line available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.

I’m expecting a very high-scoring affair this Sunday when the Cardinals travel to Seattle. Murray has significantly improved his completion % and QBR since the return of Moore 2 weeks ago. The Cardinals will be without James Conner and Darrell Williams in Week 6, so we should see Murray come out slinging. The Seahawks have been impressive this season, but when you put a magnifying glass to their opponents, they may prove to be fools gold. Only Jared Goff has hit this number against the Seahawks. However, Jimmy G was thrusted into the game cold Week 2, Marcus Mariota has only thrown 2 TD’s once this season, and Andy Dalton is…well Andy Dalton. I love Murray in this spot to throw 2 TDs against a Seattle pass rush ranked 26th overall. Murray when kept clean has thrown 5 TDs and 1 INT. The Seahawks are also one of the worst 3rd-down teams in the league, allowing teams to convert 49% of the time. I’m on this for 1U.

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