Best MLB player prop bets for today 7/11: Phillies lean on Aaron Nola

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park.
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 1 month ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the prop I am eyeing up on Monday’s MLB slate.

Aaron Nola (PHI) over 18.5 outs recorded (+105)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of writing. Playable at current price of -110.

Aaron Nola has been very good for the Phillies all season, but especially in his last 6 starts. Nola has pitched 7 or more innings in each of the 6 starts with a 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The right-handed pitcher has a 98th percentile walk rate on the season paired with an 84th percentile chase rate. His xERA is 86th percentile with a 77th percentile xBA and 87th percentile hard-hit rate. Nola is also exceptional on the road with a 2.13 ERA and only 3 home runs allowed in 55 IP.

Nola generates a lot of weak contact and his pitches per plate appearance of 3.79 ranks well above league average. His 69.8% first-pitch strike rate is elite, and he works in the zone 4.1% more than average overall. He has above average whiff and chase rates and his pitch arsenal keeps batters off balance. He uses 3 pitches at least 22% of the time with his changeup and cutter accounting for the remaining 20%. His 3 main pitches have expected batting averages of .188, .204, and .222 this season.

The Phillies bullpen is taxed after yesterday’s game where they used the bullpen for 111 pitches across 4 arms. In the last two games they have used Nick Nelson for 42 pitches, Seranthony Dominguez for 25, Andrew Bellatti for 26, Corey Knebel for 22, Jose Alvarado for 21, and Jeurys Familia threw 18 yesterday. This heavy bullpen usage combined with an upcoming series in Toronto where they may be without unvaccinated players sets up Nola to go deep tonight. I won’t name names when it comes to the vaccination status of certain Phillies players, but there have been reports that their pitching staff will be missing arms. They have shuffled the order of the rotation as a result and will likely be diving into their Triple-A roster.

The Cardinals’ offense has gone cold lately, especially against right-handed pitching. The last 7 right-handed starters they have faced have combined for a 0.90 WHIP. They have 2 earned runs scored off those starters in the last 34 combined innings. They made Kyle Gibson look like the best version of himself on July 9 when he pitched 7 shut-out innings while allowing 2 hits. The game before saw Zack Wheeler throw 7 scoreless innings with 5 hits allowed. Spencer Strider had 6 innings of scoreless ball but his 12 strikeouts cut his outing just short of the 18.5 line we need today. With Nola’s efficiency and the factors I highlighted above, I find value in this line today.

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