Best MLB player prop bet today 5/30: Pablo Lopez succeeds at Coors Field

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at loanDepot Park.
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Keith Schmelter

MLB · 1 month ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks. Go Sox!

Happy Monday! We have a long week of baseball ahead of us and we have a nice slate of 13 MLB games today, but there is one player prop that I really like.

Before that, be sure to check out our full game previews for tonight’s matchups.

Without further ado, let’s get into it!

Pablo Lopez (MIA) over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Pitching at Coors Field is not easy, but if anyone could be successful there, it’s Pablo Lopez. The 26-year-old has been incredible through 53 innings this season with a 2.04 ERA and 2.98 xERA. He has been a star of the Marlins’ surprisingly good starting rotation and he will make his 10th start of the season in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. However, that should not stop his ability to get strikeouts as the righty ranks in the 91st percentile for chase rate and 86th percentile for whiff rate. Lopez won’t blow his fastball by batters all that often, but he will make them look foolish with his changeup that has a 43% whiff rate.

In 4 starts on the road, Lopez’s ERA lowers to 1.73 and his WHIP decreases to 0.92 in 26 innings. I do expect Lopez to get hit since it is Coors Field, but asking him to record 6 strikeouts is a task he has completed in 6 of his 9 starts this season. Because of how efficient Lopez is, I expect him to go at least 6 innings, which is ample opportunity for him to record 6 strikeouts. Lopez has averaged 16.3 pitches per inning or less in 7 of his 9 outings and if he continues that efficiency, he should record 6 strikeouts by the 4th inning.

At plus odds, Lopez is worth the bet. He’s proven to be successful on the road and handle good-hitting teams, so back Lopez to record at least 6 strikeouts in Colorado.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies game.

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