The weekend is almost here, and we have an awesome schedule of weekend series worth tuning into. There are numerous in-state matchups that start today and among them is my MLB best bet in Pirates vs Phillies! Let’s dive in and discuss my 3 favorite MLB picks for Friday, May 15.
MLB best bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML over Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
The Pittsburgh Pirates secured another series win against Colorado yesterday by winning the final game 7-2. They remain home on Friday as Philadelphia comes to town for a 3-game weekend series. The Phillies took 2 of 3 games from Boston on the road, winning their 5th consecutive series. This will be a very compelling weekend series for Pennsylvania baseball fans.
Braxton Ashcraft is the scheduled starter for Pittsburgh Friday. Ashcraft has been terrific this season, and he is someone I am actively looking to back when he takes the mound. He has posted a 2.77 ERA through his first 48.1 innings of work. The right-hander is in elite form so far this month after 7.2 shutout innings against the Reds and 7 more innings of 1-run ball against the Giants. His 2.57 xERA and 3.01 FIP support his success and I expect another strong outing from Ashcraft against a Phillies lineup sitting 24th in wOBA against righties.
Pittsburgh enters Friday ranking 3rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2026. They have been most productive in their home park, and now they face off against Aaron Nola who can be exposed in the wrong matchup. Nola enters Friday with a 5.14 ERA across 42 innings pitched. His 4.30 xERA and 4.25 FIP are more encouraging marks, but he is still sporting a below average batted ball profile. Left-handed batters have also shredded Nola this season with a .915 OPS, and Pittsburgh is a lefty-heavy lineup. Look for the Pirate bats to pounce early and give Ashcraft and company a lead to work with.
Read our full Phillies vs Pirates prediction for tonight
MLB best bet: Cam Schlittler (NYY) over 5.5 strikeouts (-152)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.
Cam Schlittler is atop the AL Cy Young Award odds with Dylan Cease entering his start on Friday. Schlittler has been absolutely lights out through his first 53.1 innings of work. He has posted a 1.35 ERA with a 1.65 FIP so far, and his underlying metrics support his success. The right-hander is earning a 29.2% strikeout rate while walking just 4.5% of the batters he faces. That is a dominant ratio. Schlittler also forces hard contact into the ground, earning a 76th percentile ground-ball rate, which helps with efficiency and home run suppression. He hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last 5 starts, and I am looking to back him on Friday as he takes on the cross-town rival Mets.
Schlittler generates a 94th-percentile chase rate in 2026, and his whiff rate is also strong sitting 74th percentile. He is able to generate whiffs on each of his offerings, and having 3 different fastball variations makes it tough on opposing lineups. Schlittler has surpased his 5.5 strikeout prop in 7 of his first 9 starts this season. He now faces a Mets lineup that ranks 29th in wOBA with a 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2026. The Mets have a strikeout rate of 20.6%, the 6th lowest in that sample, but I expect Schlittler to find his 6th strikeout today on volume alone. His outs-recorded prop of 17.5 is juiced towards the over and I certainly believe he can find a strikeout per inning in this spot.
Read our full Yankees vs Mets prediction for tonight’s Subway Series showdown!
MLB best bet: Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Over 9 (-118)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
Shane Baz is not a pitcher I am looking to back anytime soon. The right-hander was traded from Tampa Bay to Baltimore this past offseason and he then signed a sizable contract extension with his new club. The Orioles have been searching for pitching help and a top of the rotation talent for years now. Baltimore can’t be happy with the early returns, as Baz has posted a 5.48 ERA through his first 44.1 innings as an Oriole. Baz has seen a drop in his strikeout metrics while walking more batters and posting below average batted ball metrics. Both righties and lefties are mashing him, and things aren’t getting better with an 8.71 ERA through two May starts so far.
Zack Littell has been even worse on paper this season for the Nationals, posting a 6.94 ERA in his first 36.1 innings with Washington. Littell is someone who has had a major home run issue in his career, and the same has been true in 2026. Littell has struggled with 14 home runs allowed already. His 7.61 xERA and 8.26 FIP are even worse, suggesting Littell may be fortunate to have his current ERA. Both Baltimore and Washington are around league average lineups against right-handed pitching, and I favor the over in this game given current pricing.
Read our full Orioles vs Nationals prediction
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