It has been a fun rivalry weekend of MLB baseball with intriguing matchups across the entire league. We close out rivalry weekend on Sunday with a loaded slate and several games worth tuning into. There are 3 games that have caught my eye from a betting perspective. Let’s dive in and take a look at my best bets for Sunday’s slate of MLB action!
MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total over 4.5 (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are good at baseball. Their offense is currently atop MLB in wRC+ against right-handed pitching while 2nd in wOBA against that handedness. They have the shoe-in Hall-of-Famers in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. They sport of the premier hitting catchers of this era in Will Smith and the largest free agent signing from the past offseason in Kyle Tucker. Then you get to Max Muncy and his team-leading 159 wRC+. Behind him is Andy Pages who is 2nd on the team with a 148 wRC+. Teoscar Hernandez would hit cleanup or close to there for half of the league and he bats 8th for this lineup. Even if the Dodgers rest a bat or 2 on Sunday, they have numerous productive bench pieces as well.
In the first 2 games of their weekend series with the Angels this Dodgers lineup has scored 6 and 15 runs. On the season they average 5.17 runs per contest, good for 3rd in baseball. That mark jumps to a league-leading 6.38 runs per game when on the road as they are today. I do love backing their talented lineup on the road as they are guaranteed all 9 innings to bat regardless of score. I believe they can win this game today but would rather back them on the team total given the poor form of their starter Roki Sasaki.
The Dodgers lineup will face off against Grayson Rodriguez on Sunday. This will not only be the season debut for Rodriguez, but his first time on an MLB mound since 2024. Grayson tossed 5 innings with 7 strikeouts and 1 earned run in the complex league on May 5. On May 11 he tossed 4.2 innings with 2 earned runs and 11 strikeouts in Low-A. This is a significant jump in competition and the toughest possible matchup to return to. Even if he pitches well, I doubt we see him go more than 5 innings. The Dodgers should produce against this Angels bullpen as well. Wind blowing out around 10 MPH also helps their case for 5 or more runs.
MLB Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML over the Detroit Tigers (-126)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -135.
I favor the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers in their matchup Sunday afternoon. Jack Flaherty is a pitcher I am looking to pick on currently, and this matchup seems like an opportune time to do so. Flaherty has had an inconsistent career, flashing signs of dominance, even for entire seasons, but then at other times he is a liability in a starting rotation. The Tigers rotation has been hit with injuries to numerous pieces this season including the best left-handed pitcher in the sport in Tarik Skubal. Detroit needs Flaherty to step up and pitch well, but it has yet to happen this year.
Flaherty tossed 161 innings with a 4.64 ERA last season. Through 9 starts spanning just 37.2 innings of work this year, Flaherty has posted a 5.73 ERA. His 5.21 xERA and 5.19 FIP are barely any better, and his batted ball profile is very worrisome. He ranks 12th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and he’s also walking 15.9% of batters he faces. Flaherty is struggling to generate any chases outside of the strike zone. Chasing has been one of the biggest issues with Toronto’s lineup this season, but with how little Flaherty’s stuff is moving I expect them to display patience on Sunday.
Toronto’s offense has been a disappointment this season, but it isn’t like Detroit’s has been that much better. The Tigers lineup is also tasked with facing the tougher starting pitcher in Sunday’s game. Kevin Gausman is coming off a poor outing, allowing 6 earned runs and an additional unearned run to the Tampa Bay Rays. That was semi expected, however, as that was Gausman’s 2nd straight outing against that same Rays lineup. I actually backed Gausman in the first of those 2 matchups with an under 2.5 earned runs prop, and I once again think he will pitch well today. Gausman’s 3.86 ERA has a 3.47 xERA and 3.27 FIP behind it. He ranks 97th percentile with his 3.8% walk rate, and when his splitter is on, he is still capable of performing like an ace-caliber arm.
MLB Best Bet: Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox over 8.5 (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
Erick Fedde is a pitcher that is due for some regression. He has tossed 815.2 career innings at the major league level. Fedde has a career BABIP of .290 and a career strand rate of 71.7%. This season his opponents have a .208 BABIP and when on base they are stranded 81.6% of the time. Fedde ranks just 4th percentile in whiff rate, and he fills up the strike zone. He ranks 22nd percentile in barrel rate which is concerning with that much contact made. Yes, Fedde has a respectable 3.77 ERA through 43 innings, but his 6.03 FIP is far more worrisome. Now he matches up against a Cubs lineup ranking 8th in wOBA with a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Fedde has also allowed 7 home runs in his last 3 starts alone with at least 2 allowed in each of those outings. I believe we see Fedde’s ERA closer to 5 than his current mark by seasons end.
Colin Rea is the scheduled starter for the Cubs on Sunday. Rea has pitched both out of the bullpen and as a starter for Chicago this season, and he has a 4.68 ERA through his first 42.1 innings of work. The right-hander has a 4.23 FIP but a 5.34 xERA due to poor batted ball metrics. Rea ranks just 14th percentile in hard-hit rate and 17th percentile in barrel rate this season while failing to generate many whiffs. The White Sox lineup has a respectable 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and they should be able to contribute towards the total. The wind is blowing in for this game, but I do still favor the over. If choosing a team total, I would side with the Cubs, but I do like both offenses’ matchups on Sunday.
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