Best MLB player prop bet today 6/13: Another long outing from Sandy Alcantara

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Truist Park.
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Keith Schmelter

MLB · 2 weeks ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks. Go Sox!
Happy Monday everyone! We’ve got a small slate of 10 MLB games on the docket today, and after combing through each one of them, I’ve found a player prop that I absolutely love.

Make sure you check out our picks on the side and total for all of today’s games as well.

Without further ado, let’s get into it!

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) over 19.5 outs recorded (+100)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Sandy Alcantara is my favorite for the NL Cy Young Award. Miami’s ace has been brilliant this season with a 1.61 ERA and 2.54 xERA through 83.2 innings. He has thrown the most innings of any pitcher in the National League and it seems he is getting better as the season goes on. Alcantara has completed 7 innings of work and averaged 106.3 pitches per outing in 6 consecutive starts. He has allowed only 3 earned runs in those starts and has an ERA of 0.56 in those outings. Although Alcantara has been punching out more batters recently, I prefer his outs recorded prop because it means we can still use his efficiency to our advantage.

The Marlins ace has averaged 15.9 or fewer pitches per inning in his last 6 starts. He has been able to be extremely efficient while also striking out a lot of hitters, but with this outs prop, Alcantara needs to complete only 6.2 innings of work. Based on Don Mattingly’s trust in the right-hander, I expect Alcantara to throw at least 100 pitches before being pulled. Alcantara’s recent success does not seem random when looking at his pitch types per outing in his last 6 starts. The right-hander relied on his sinker for about 50% of pitches in the first half of his starts, but in his last 6, he has made a change. He is throwing fewer sinkers, more sliders, and a ton more changeups which have led to his success.

I expect Alcantara to record 20 outs in 7 consecutive starts, so back the ace to complete at least 6.2 innings of work tonight.

Check out today’s MLB mega parlay (+1097 odds)

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