Best player props for Thursday's MLB slate: Woodruff can cage Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers Brandon Woodruff MLB player props
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Connor Grootenhuis

MLB· 1 month ago

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Covering all things sports betting with a focus on MLB and college football. Lifelong sports fan based in the Bayou State of Louisiana. Strong believer that every loss is a bad beat and every win is easy money.

The rumors are true. I am in fact 11-1 in my last 12 MLB player props. I want to reiterate the fact that this is not a big deal. I just wanted to give you all an update. I have two player props that I will share here, and I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for a winning Thursday.

On top of these player props, you should definitely check out our experts’ picks on all of the MLB action today.  There are 10 games on the schedule, and our team is locked and loaded with picks for every game — sides and totals.  What a beautiful thing. Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter for any added plays.

Now for the fun part.

Brandon Woodruff over 6.5 strikeouts (+110)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

The Brewers will finish up a 3-game series against the Cardinals in St. Louis this evening. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has stymied the St. Louis offense through the first two games, and Woodruff should be able to keep it going. He has pitched to an outstanding 2.18 ERA in his 23 outings, and he is averaging more than 6.0 innings per start. Freddy Peralta had to leave with an injury after just 2.0 innings in last night’s game, and the Milwaukee bullpen had to cover 8.0 innings. Their bullpen could be a little spent, and that means Woodruff could have a bit of a longer leash. He is more than capable of pitching deep into the game, and his strikeout/walk numbers this season are insane.

Woodruff ranks in the 85th percentile among all MLB pitchers in terms of strikeout rate. He also ranks in the 81st percentile in chase rate. That’s pretty good. The 28-year-old right-hander has racked up 163 strikeouts in 140.1 innings on the year, and he has issued just 36 walks. That’s just wild. He faced the Cardinals on May 12, and he tossed 7.2 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10. The Cardinals’ offense can be stagnant at times, and they struck out 11 times in last night’s game. There is good value with the plus-money on Woodruff here.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals

Luis Castillo over 7.5 strikeouts (+115)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

After a rough first two months of the season, Castillo has turned things around a bit. In April and May, he posted a 7.26 ERA over 11 starts. However, since the beginning of June, he has a 2.86 ERA over 14 starts. He has also seen his strikeout numbers improve. Castillo has reached this number in 4 of his last 6 starts, and he has 73 strikeouts in 67.2 innings at home this season. In addition, he will be facing a favorable opponent tonight.

The Marlins strike out a lot. Only 4 teams have struck out more than the Marlins over the last 15 days, and only 2 have struck out more than them on the season. They were swept by the Braves earlier this week, and they struck out a combined 31 times in 3 games. Charlie Morton struck out 9 Miami hitters in 6.0 innings yesterday, so Castillo could be catching them at the right time. Castillo has pitched well against Miami in this career, going 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA in 4 starts against them. He is averaging over 7.0 innings of work in those 4 starts, and he has thrown more than 100 pitches in 10 of his last 14 starts. Consider backing the Cincinnati right-hander to go over this total.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds

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