Best MLB prop bet for today 9/12: Texas Rangers stay hot against left-handed pitching
For the last 15 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Monday’s MLB slate.
Read our MLB picks for all of Monday’s matchups
Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 1.5 (Game 1) (-120) (0.5U)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Trevor Rogers is someone I have picked on this season as his location issues have presented the left-hander with problems. The former first-round pick typically sees his outing depending on the success he has in locating his changeup. His changeup has gone from being his best pitch in his 2021 breakout season to an area of concern this season. When looking at the heat map from those seasons on that pitch, it is clear the command isn’t at his 2021 form and opponents have a 9.3% lower whiff rate on that pitch as a result. He is also allowing a .251 xBA on his changeup this season compared to his .213 mark last year. Not only is the changeup not as effective, but his fastball is taking the brunt of the punishment. Hitters are sitting on his high fastballs and absolutely crushing them. His 4-seam fastball this season has a .295 xBA and .524 xSLG while throwing that pitch 52.3% of the time.
Rogers has made 21 starts this season while allowing 2 or more runs in the first 5 innings 15 times. He has looked better since returning from injury, but still allowed 3 runs in the first 5 innings of his last start. Overall this season he ranks just 16th percentile in xERA, 17th percentile in xBA, and 21st percentile in xSLG while 29th percentile in BB%. His 4.08 pitches per plate appearance can only help batters as they see more pitches and become more familiar with him at the plate. Even worse for Rogers have been his struggles at home. In 46.2 IP in Miami this year he has a 6.36 ERA with a .301 OBA and a 1.59 WHIP.
Texas has scored 2 or more runs in the first 5 innings of 17 of their last 24 games when facing a left-handed starter. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching Texas has a wRC+ of 139. They rank 5th in wOBA and OPS during that span while 8th in ISO and 5th in SLG. I find this number to be soft and may make it a full unit play depending on lineups.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets — we went 2-0 yesterday!