Best MLB prop bet for today 9/16: Adrian Houser keeps Yankees bats quiet

Sep 10, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Adrian Houser (37) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
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Javan Shouey


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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me. For Javan Shouey media enquiries, please email
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For the last 15 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

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Adrian Houser (MIL) over 14.5 outs recorded (-130)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. 

You won’t catch me hyping up Adrian Houser often but this line seems very soft to me. The 29-year-old right-hander has made 18 starts this season clearing, this line in 12 of those starts. Even better yet, Houser has cleared this line in 8 of his 9 starts at home this year. He loves pitching in Milwaukee as his 3.21 ERA and .223 OBA at home are vastly superior to his 6.14 ERA and .285 OBA when on the road. Primarily a sinker pitcher, Houser generates a ton of ground balls and weak contact which helps him get out of his walk-induced jams. Control is typically the main issue with Houser as he ranks in the 26th percentile in BB%.

He missed time with injury and was brought back slowly, but has seen his pitch count reach 82 in his last start. I love seeing his workload build back up as he has even reached 100+ pitches 5 times this season. His last two starts, including one in Colorado, have combined for 11 innings while allowing 2 combined earned runs and generating 18 ground ball outs. The Yankees seem like a tough opponent when looking at season-long numbers, but that doesn’t tell the story with this team. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank 20th in wOBA, 19th in SLG, 21st in OBP and have a wRC+ of 94.

Of the last 23 non-opener right-handed starters to face the Yankees, 17 have covered this line. They have plenty of power in their lineup but lack consistency and I like Houser to get through 5 innings in this spot at home.

Be sure to check out our full New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers predictions

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