Best MLB prop bet for today 9/26: Red Sox get to Jordan Lyles early

Red Sox hitters Devers, Bogaerts, Pham
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Javan Shouey


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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me. For Javan Shouey media enquiries, please email
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For the last 15 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Monday’s MLB slate.

Boston Red Sox first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-125) (0.5U)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130. 

With only 4 MLB games on tap for this Monday I was worried I wouldn’t be able to find a quality play worth recommending. That fear was alleviated when I laid eyes on this bet. It’s poor timing for Red Sox fans as their season is already a wash, but their offense has actually been surging — especially against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. During that span they rank best in MLB in wOBA and OPS, 8th in ISO, 4th in SLG, 9th in BB% and have a wRC+ of 116. One of those games was against Jordan Lyles, whom they will face once again today. Lyles allowed 8 earned runs in only 3.2 innings in that start and has given up 16 earned runs overall in 18.o innings against Boston this season. His 2.06 WHIP and .386 OBA in those innings has lead to 3 or more earned runs allowed in each of the last 3 meetings. Boston’s active roster has a .327 AVG and .835 OPS in 110 combined at-bats against Lyles all time.

Lyles has also struggled mightily on the road this season, posting a 5.48 ERA and allowing 18 home runs in 87.0 innings pitched. On the road he has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 11 of 16 starts and 3 or more runs in the first 5.0 innings in 10 of those 16 starts. He now heads to Fenway Park, which is one of the more hitter-friendly venues in the sport. Winds will be blowing out at around 8 MPH and of the 4 games on tap for today Fenway provides the highest projected boost in run-scoring opportunities and extra-base hits according to Lyles’ advanced stats aren’t in his favor, as he ranks 14th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, xERA and barrel rate. He struggles to make batters miss and his fly-ball rate allowed is 4.7% higher than average. It should be mentioned that he is fresh off a complete game against the Tigers, but that is clearly an outlier against a poor lineup when looking at his season-long resume.

In this matchup I foresee far less success and look for the Boston bats to strike early on in the game, as Lyles allows a .306 OBA and .881 OPS the first time through the batting order.

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