Best MLB prop bet for today 9/9: Phillies get to Patrick Corbin again

Washington Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 2 weeks ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 15 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Friday’s MLB slate.

Phillies first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-120) (0.5U)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing, playable to -130. Phillies full game team total also playable.

We have made this exact bet this season already. On August 6 Patrick Corbin failed to make it out of the first inning when he allowed 5 hits, 2 walks, 2 home runs and 6 earned runs. Philadelphia scored 9 runs in the first 2 innings of that game. The other time that the Phillies faced Corbin this year ended in 9 runs crossing the plate on 8 hits and 2 home runs in 3.1 IP. Corbin has been nothing short of horrendous this season ranking 1st percentile in xERA, xBA and xSLG. He also ranks 8th percentile or worse in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. He throws 4 pitches with their xBA’s sitting at .311, .258, .306 and .375.

On the road this season Corbin has a 7.95 ERA, .330 OBA and a 1.93 WHIP. At night he has a 7.17 ERA, .331 OBA and 1.84 WHIP. In 166 combined AB this Phillies roster has a .317 AVG and .977 against Corbin with 23 extra-base hits. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching the Phillies rank 8th in wOBA and OPS, 12th in ISO, 7th in SLG and have a 122 wRC+. Of the last 18 left-handed starting pitchers to face Philadelphia 11 of them have allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park, one of the more hitter-friendly parks in MLB. Today’s whether projects well for run scoring and I expect the Phillies’ bats to stay hot against Corbin.

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