Best NBA Player Props for Wednesday’s slate: Wall can't do it all

Houston Rockets guard John Wall celebrates making a three-pointer during win over Wizards
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PropBetGuy

NBA · 1 year ago

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

After battling through the doldrums that is Wednesday, what better way to cap it off than with a massive NBA slate? Ten games are on the docket tonight, including the Rockets visiting the Sixers, and the Heat traveling out west to face the Warriors. There’s a lot of betting action to be had, so make sure you check out our full game previews with picks and analysis.

There are some really intriguing matchups on the player prop front. Looking to build on my 97-62 NBA record, two lines really stood out to me. Keying in on lead ball handlers for their respective teams, I present to you, my two best bets of the night.

John Wall under 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (-122)

Line available at publishing. Playable down to under 36.5.  If you do not have the combination line available, under 25.5 points would be the preferred alternative.

Wall is somewhat of the last man standing in Houston. After trading away James Harden, the Rockets have seen Christain Wood, Victor Oladipo, and Eric Gordon go down with injuries. While this leaves Wall as the main option on offense, this line still reads as too high.

Wall is averaging 29.9 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) on the season. He’s stayed under 37.5 in 16 of 18 games. Even with the depleted roster, the matchup should prove difficult. The Rockets guard has scored 55 percent of his made baskets within ten feet of the rim, which is where the Sixers excel defensively.

Philadelphia allows the fifth-lowest opponent field goal percentage (54.9 percent) in the paint. With Wall only shooting 36 percent on his jump shots outside of ten feet, I’m projecting an inefficient shooting night. The Sixers also allow the 11th-fewest assists per game, and the eighth fewest rebounds.

Coming off an emotional return to Washington, and facing the Sixers as a double-digit underdog, this also reads as a potential letdown game for Wall and the Rockets. I see several outs for the under, with Wall struggling to excel in all three categories.

 

Jimmy Butler over 7.5 assists (-115)

Line available at publishing. Playable down to -130.

Sometimes it’s best to go with the chalk. Since his return from his extended COVID-related absence, Butler is averaging 8.3 assists per game. He’s dished out eight dimes in seven of nine of those games.  With point guard Goran Dragic sidelined, and the Heat struggling to gain their footing in general, Butler has taken the reins.

Butler’s assist rate is 36.4 percent, good for 11th in the NBA (had he played enough games to qualify).  Versus players in the top 15 of assist rate this season, the Warriors allow an average of 8.9 assists per game (to those who played at least 30 minutes).

Dating back to last season, Butler has averaged a 12 percent uptick in his assists in games following a loss. After allowing the Clippers to rally for the win on Monday, I love Butler to come out assertive tonight.

 

Pickswise is the home of free NBA picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our NBA parlays and ‘NBA prop bets‘ tabs for more expert picks. 

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